Interest Rates – Share of Countries Hiking Rates Over the Following 12 Months Further rate hikes are expected in the coming months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed – Policymaker’s Projections for the Midpoint of U.S. Interest Rates The Fed forecasts first rate hikes in 2023. Image: Financial Times
Estimated S&P 500 2022 Earnings Impact Based on 25% Tax Rate Have markets priced in Biden’s tax hikes? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Survey – When Is the Fed Most Likely to Raise Interest Rates? 43% of the respondents in the survey see the Fed lifting off in 2023, with another 39% projecting the first rate hike in 2024 or later. Image: J.P. Morgan
Net Global Central Bank Hikes/Cuts Global central banks haven’t cut this much since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy
Is Wall Street Overestimating Fed Rate Cut Odds? For the first time, the probability of a rate cut is above 80%, and the probability of a rate hike is 0%. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds vs. VIX Taking into account the lag effect of Fed rate hikes on the U.S. economy, should investors expect the VIX to continue being elevated? Image: Deutsche Bank
Rolling 24 Month Correlation Between U.S. Treasury Bonds and Equities Amid high inflation, UST bonds become less effective as a hedge against U.S. stocks, as rising prices erode bond payouts and interest rate hikes lead to a drop in bond prices. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
U.S. Recession and Fed Hiking Cycle Based on the lags between rate hikes and previous cycles, the likelihood of a recession in the United States remains a topic of discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank
Average S&P 500 Performance in Fed Tightening Cycles S&P 500 weakness tends to materialise 9-10 months after the first Fed rate hike and tends to last a year. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation – U.S. Trimmed and Median CPI Trimmed and median CPI remain sticky so far, which suggests that further rate hikes may be needed to tame inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank