The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP.

At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP.

If a recession were to occur today, it won’t be the fault of the Fed, because real interest rates are near zero and well below real GDP Nowcast. Historically, a recession begins when real Fed Funds rate exceeds real GDP growth.