The S&P 500 suggests a 26% probability of a recession in the United States, reflecting some concerns among investors.

Analysts often use the current percentage change in the S&P 500 index to gauge the likelihood of an impending U.S. recession, given historical trends. On average, the S&P 500 index has dropped about 31% during the last ten recessions. This statistic serves as a benchmark for predicting economic downturns, as significant declines in the stock market are often correlated with recessions.

Image: J.P. Morgan