Search Results for: Fed

Market-Implied Change in Fed Funds Rate Traders are anticipating a total of 75 bps in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting In light of Fed chair recent comments, market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024, have shifted. Traders now estimate a 61.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at this meeting. Image: CME Group

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The latest GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed estimates a 2.5% annualized increase in U.S. real GDP for Q4 2024, pointing to sustained economic growth. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Probability of Fed Rate Cut After the CPI data release, traders now estimate an 82.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Image: CME GRoup

Interest Rates – Fed Funds Futures Curve After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting, the slope of the fed funds futures curve has increased slightly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate movements. Image: The Daily Shot

S&P 500 Performance After Fed Cuts Within 2% of All-Time Highs Since 1980, the combination of an S&P 500 near all-time highs (within 2%) and Fed rate cuts has historically signaled a bullish 12-month outlook, with an average return of 13.9%. Image: Carson Investment Research

Federal Funds Target Rate While the Fed has begun easing monetary policy, the current federal funds rate remains notably above their estimated neutral rate, with plans for further gradual reductions to bring it closer to neutral over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Federal Debt Growth and Gold Price While the increase in U.S. federal debt has traditionally correlated with higher gold prices, multiple other factors significantly influence gold’s market value. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Money Market Fund Assets and Fed Funds Rate The current environment suggests that a substantial amount of capital is poised to flow back into equity markets, driven by expectations of favorable economic conditions and monetary policy adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Equities Around Fed Cut With And Without Recession Global equities typically show strong performance following the Fed’s first rate cut, when the economy avoids a recession during the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Labor Market – Nonfarm Payrolls Growth in the Month That the Fed Starts Easing Policy The recent rise in payroll numbers is surprising given the Fed’s easing of interest rates. Usually, strong job growth coincides with tighter monetary policy, but the current situation reveals a notable divergence. Image: Deutsche Bank