ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index in December stands at 49.3%, above the consensus forecast of 48.2%, which is still indicative of a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011.…
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change With the ISM Manufacturing Index still in contraction territory and strongly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth, questions arise about the resilience of corporate earnings in 2025. Image: Real Investment Advice
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives ex. Commodities and ISM Manufacturing Index U.S. equity sector rotations are pricing in a “no landing” economic scenario, where the U.S. economy avoids both recession and significant slowdown, maintaining steady growth instead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions The U.S. manufacturing sector is currently experiencing its second longest downturn in modern history, attributed to various factors, including elevated interest rates that have suppressed demand. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP Growth The large gap that currently exists between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. real GDP will eventually close, as economic indicators tend to align over time. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Semiconductors Semiconductors are discounting a substantial rise in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which suggests a robust expansion in manufacturing activity and overall economic growth. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
ISM Manufacturing Index and Autos vs. Retail When there is robust economic growth, it is generally expected that the autos sector would outperform the retail sector. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. HY – IG Spread The ISM Manufacturing Index in contraction is a sign of a potential recession, while the tight U.S. HY/IG spread suggests continued positive growth. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Months Between S&P 500 Recession Trough and Trough in ISM Manufacturing Index Monitoring the ISM Manufacturing Index can be useful for investors who are interested in making decisions about when to invest in the S&P 500. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Employment It is important to keep a close eye on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for any changes in U.S. employment.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. GDP Growth The current reading of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index could result in negative U.S. GDP growth. Image: True Insights