MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index The MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury options, has surged to its highest level since January 2024, signaling potential shifts in broader financial markets. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Stocks – Earnings Day Moves Last quarter set a 15-year record for earnings day volatility, with 12% of S&P 500 stocks experiencing price movements greater than 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index The MOVE index, indicating the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options, has recently reached its highest level since January 2024, suggesting possible shifts in broader financial markets. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 1-Day Move to CPI The U.S. equity market’s response to CPI data is becoming less pronounced, influenced by shifting investor sentiment about interest rates and overall economic conditions. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Equal Weighted vs. MOVE Index Assuming bond volatility continues to decline, will the S&P 500 equal weighted index continue to rise? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Treasury Volatility – MOVE Index The decrease in U.S. rates volatility, as indicated by the MOVE index, could be viewed as a positive development for both the bond market and the overall economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Asset Allocation
Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE The divergence between VIX and MOVE presents unique challenges and opportunities for market participants, reflecting different expectations and perceptions of risk in the equity and bond markets. Image: BofA Global Research
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Move Before and After the Last Fed Hike in the Cycle Historically, after the last Fed rate hike, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have tended to trend lower on average. Image: Deutsche Bank
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 Equal-Weighted vs. S&P 500 The main factor driving U.S. equities has been the volatility of rates. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Performance – Percentage Point Difference between S&P 500 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Annual Price Moves The outperformance of the S&P 500 vs. the S&P 500 equal-weighted is the biggest since 1998. Image: Deutsche Bank
Volatility – VIX/MOVE Ratio The VIX/MOVE ratio is still falling. Image: The Daily Shot