NBER Recession Dating vs. Market Realization As a reliable predictor of U.S. recessions, the S&P 500 often peaks and declines before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) formally acknowledges a recession, generally within 6 to 16 months. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Recession – NBER Indicators The NBER indicators do not suggest that the U.S. economy is in recession at this time. Image: Apollo Global Management
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and U.S. NBER Recessions As the economic recovery becomes more mature, the yield curve tends to flatten. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Business Cycle Indicator and NBER Recession This business cycle indicator reflects a stronger than expected recovery in the United States. Image: BofA Global Research
Big-Data Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle and NBER Recession Chart showing that the short-sample indicator improved and moved into the “Boom” regime last November. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Recessions – NBER Since 1850, this will be the first decade without a recession in the United States. Image: National Bureau of Economic Research
Recessions After U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Market Peaks Prior to NBER Recessions Analysis based on the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion, suggesting the S&P 500 peak-to-trough in percentage terms, and NBER recession start and end dates. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Number of Days Between Cycle Turn and NBER Announcement The current U.S. business cycle is the longest on record. But what about the number of days between the cycle turn and the NBER announcement? Image: Lohman Econometrics
Historical Default Rate and Recession Periods in the U.S. Default rates on high-yield corporate bonds have exceeded 10% over the past three recessions. Image: Altman-Kuehne and NBER
Real GDP Increased Moderately Compared to Previous Business Cycles Even if we are currently in a late cycle, history helps us to predict the future and this cycle should not end immediately. Each line begins with the peak of the previous business cycle, as determined by the NBER. (Image: Blackrock)
Real Fed Funds Rate Is Very Low Compared to Previous Business Cycles Today, Real Fed funds rate is very low compared to previous business cycles and well below real GDP. If history helps us to predict the future, then this cycle should not end any time soon. Each line begins with the peak of the…