U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull – Bear Spread The AAII US investor sentiment bull-bear spread indicates a shift towards a more cautious outlook, reflecting a decline in bullish sentiment and a rise in bearish sentiment among individual investors. Image: The Daily Shot
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Bear Markets and Corrections The current drawdown in the S&P 500 has been notably sharper compared to the average bull market correction, aligning more closely with the characteristics of an average bear market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After Bear (and Near Bear) Markets End Historically, the S&P 500 has consistently rebounded and performed strongly after bear markets. It has consistently delivered positive returns in the first and second year of new bull markets since World War II. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets The sell-in-May effect may be more relevant in bear markets. In bull markets, it may be seen as a missed opportunity for potential gains, given the positive momentum and upward trends typically observed in the market. Image: Topdown Charts
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings The AAII Bearish Sentiment continues to be below its historical average, suggesting that AAII investors hold an optimistic view of the short-term stock market outlook. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 – Secular Bull and Bear Markets The strong performance of the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024 could be seen as a clear indication of a more sustained secular bull market, potentially extending until the late 2020s and early 2030s. Image: BofA Global Research Click the Image to Enlarge
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII investor sentiment bull minus bear spread, which is in the 91th percentile, raises legitimate concerns that the market may be overheating. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Months That S&P 500 Index Bear (and Near Bear) Markets End U.S. stocks have demonstrated a tendency to reach their lowest point of decline during the month of October, a pattern that has been observed over time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Correlation Between AAII Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Returns The AAII bull-bear spread may not necessarily be a reliable predictor of future S&P 500 returns. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
AAII Investor Sentiment: % Bullish – % Bearish U.S. retail investors are feeling less optimistic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research