U.S. Business Cycle – Cross-Asset Cycle Indicator The Morgan Stanley’s U.S. cycle indicator has moved into the downturn phase. Should investors favor fixed income over equities? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Commodities – Commodity Index Recoveries Through Every Business Cycle This is the quickest recovery in commodities since 1914. Image: Deutsche Bank
Recession – Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle If the next U.S. recession occurs in mid-2024, it will be the 8th longest cycle out of 35 since 1850s. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Nominal GDP Recoveries Through Every Business Cycle The current U.S. nominal GDP recovery is one the quickest in history. Image: Deutsche Bank
Nominal Effective U.S. Dollar and China Business Cycle Indicator (Leading Indicator) China’s business cycle tends to lead the U.S. dollar by 9 months. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Business Cycle Indicator and NBER Recession This business cycle indicator reflects a stronger than expected recovery in the United States. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Business Cycle Indicator in Repair Phase Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator remains in the “repair” phase. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
The Four Business Cycle Phases This chart explains the four cycle phases; expansion, downturn, repair, and recovery. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Business Cycle – Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate Chart suggesting that U.S. growth has peaked. Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Business Cycle – Months of Growth vs. Months of Recession This chart puts into perspective the U.S. business cycle and the length of recessions. Image: BofA Global Research
Big-Data Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle and NBER Recession Chart showing that the short-sample indicator improved and moved into the “Boom” regime last November. Image: BofA Global Research