S&P 500 Index vs. U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index The S&P 500 Index and the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index are often closely correlated. But right now, bad news is good news, until it’s not. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Citi Economic Surprise Indexes The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) for the world economies is on the rise, outpacing the U.S. CESI, indicating that economic data for the world economies are surpassing expectations to a greater extent than in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Citi Economic Surprise Index The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. is on the rise, signaling that economic data releases are exceeding analyst expectations and pointing to a positive momentum in the U.S. economic performance. Image: BofA Global Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index and 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Are bonds risky? The Citi Economic Surprise Index suggests that bond yields could rise. Image: Renaissance Macro Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index and S&P 500 This chart highlights the current divergence between the Citi Economic Surprise Index and the S&P 500. Image: BofA Global Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index and S&P 500 The Citi Economic Surprise Index has risen sharply, but it has an inconsistent history in terms of its correlation with the S&P 500. It is a cyclical indicator: high readings suggest favouring defensives over cyclicals, and low readings suggest favouring cyclicals over defensives. Image: Renaissance Macro
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. EUR/USD Weaker European growth relative to the U.S. could weaken Euro/U.S. Dollar. Image: Credit Suisse
Trade-Weighted Dollar vs. G10 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Will the U.S. dollar trend weaker in 2023? Image: BCA Research
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. S&P 500 12-Month Earnings Surprise U.S. earnings revisions suggest negative economic surprises. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Should investors expect U.S. Treasuries to rally? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. IG Credit Spread and S&P 500 vs. Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index Chart suggesting that since mid-May, the rally has been driven by positive macroeconomic factors. Image: BofA Global Research