CEO Business Confidence Expectations for Economy The current landscape suggests a cautious yet optimistic outlook among CEOs, which could lead to increased economic activity and investment as businesses prepare for potential growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NFIB Small Business Confidence Index With the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index at 91.5 in September, often linked to recessionary periods, U.S. small business owners appear increasingly pessimistic about both their businesses and the broader economic landscape. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Labor Market – Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” Shifts in consumer perceptions regarding job availability suggest notable changes that could potentially lead to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Consumer Confidence Composite and S&P 500 While the U.S. stock market has experienced a remarkable rally, consumer confidence has waned since 2019, underscoring a disconnect between financial market performance and broader economic sentiment. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Consumer Confidence The U.S. economy has experienced robust growth, as reflected in the headline GDP data, but consumer confidence has worsened. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
CEO Confidence The recent improvement in CEO confidence in the U.S. indicates a renewed sense of optimism among business leaders. This is a significant development that can have far-reaching effects on the U.S. economy and business landscape. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Buybacks vs. CEO Confidence (Leading Indicator) S&P 500 buybacks are likely to rebound, as CEO confidence typically leads buybacks by 6 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Twitter Sentiment Index, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Despite strong economic performance, U.S. consumer confidence has shown improvements but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that the recovery process is not yet complete. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Conference Board Consumer Confidence and U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Historically, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has tended to follow consumer confidence, underscoring the importance of monitoring consumer confidence as a potential indicator of future yield curve movements. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks There is a good correlation between the annual rate of change in the NFIB Small Business Survey and U.S. small-cap stocks. Image: Real Investment Advice
Recessions and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Expectations Less Present Situation Historically, low consumer confidence expectations have not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management