U.S. Labor Market – Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” Shifts in consumer perceptions regarding job availability suggest notable changes that could potentially lead to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Consumer Confidence Composite and S&P 500 While the U.S. stock market has experienced a remarkable rally, consumer confidence has waned since 2019, underscoring a disconnect between financial market performance and broader economic sentiment. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Consumer Confidence The U.S. economy has experienced robust growth, as reflected in the headline GDP data, but consumer confidence has worsened. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Twitter Sentiment Index, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Despite strong economic performance, U.S. consumer confidence has shown improvements but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that the recovery process is not yet complete. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Conference Board Consumer Confidence and U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Historically, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has tended to follow consumer confidence, underscoring the importance of monitoring consumer confidence as a potential indicator of future yield curve movements. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Recessions and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Expectations Less Present Situation Historically, low consumer confidence expectations have not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Consumer Confidence and U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Historically, the U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve tends to follow U.S. consumer confidence. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 Index vs. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index The S&P 500 Index and consumer sentiment have diverged since July 2021. Should investors expect market weakness? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Consumer Confidence Index vs. S&P 500 Does consumer confidence improve or do equities fall? Image: Piper Sandler
U.S. Consumer Confidence – U.S. Auto Sales U.S. auto sales have fallen by 14% year-over-year in August, amid weaker consumer confidence and spending in the United States. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Cycle – Spread Between Conference Board Consumer Confidence and UMich Surveys Morgan Stanley expects a “mid-cycle transition”, with a 10%-plus correction for the U.S. stock market. Image: Morgan Stanley Research