Search Results for: core inflation

Developed Market Core Inflation Rates Despite efforts to combat inflation through various monetary policies, core inflation rates remain high in many developed markets. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank

Survey – When Do You Expect Y/Y Core Inflation Prints Fall Back to 2%? Will core inflation prints fall back to 2% in 2023? Image: J.P. Morgan

Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) and Core Inflation Difference (Leading Indicator) EUR/USD could continue to drop, as core inflation in the U.S. has increased. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Core Inflation Forecasts vs. History The forecast suggests that U.S. core inflation will be consistently above the recent history. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) M2 velocity year-over-year tends to lead U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.52 since 1996).  It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. Click the Image to Enlarge

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) U.S. annual core CPI at 1.3% in February. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index tends to lead U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“…

U.S. Core Inflation vs. Home Prices (Leading Indicator) Home prices suggest that core CPI seems likely to fall further. Image: Scotiabank Economics

Core Inflation and Average Trailing S&P 500 P/E Ratio In periods of low inflation, the P/E ratio is higher. Conversely, high inflation tends to depress the P/E ratio. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Misery Index (Unemployment Rate + Core Inflation) The misery index is an economic indicator, created by economist Arthur Okun. Because both inflation and unemployment are very low, the U.S. misery index (unemployment rate + core inflation) is approaching all-time low. That’s good news for Americans, because it brings stability to the life of the…

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation This great chart suggests that U.S. real GDP growth leads core inflation by 18 months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond