Supply Disruption Index vs. U.S. Core CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) Is U.S. core CPI inflation finally peaking? The supply disruption index tends to lead U.S. core CPI inflation by one month. Image: Alpine Macro
Inflation – Supply Chain Disruption/Backlog Composite Surging searches for supply chain disruption and backlogs could lead to inflation risks. Image: Topdown Charts
How Long Do Americans See Coronavirus Disruption Lasting? 51% of Americans see coronavirus disruption lasting a few more months. Image: Statista
Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions Chart suggesting that supply chain disruptions have no material impact on inflation. Image: J.P. Morgan
Oil Market Disruption This chart suggests that “the oil market can cope with a larger Saudi disruption for several months.” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Major Oil Supply Disruptions As a reminder, disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Effects and Durations of 19 Oil Market Disruptions This table shows that disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: PKVerleger, LLC
Federal Funds Rate By aligning market expectations with its policy intentions, the Fed minimizes surprises in the fed funds rate relative to market pricing at the start of the blackout period, thereby reducing the likelihood of market disruptions. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Treasury Bill Yield by Maturity A default by the U.S. government could have significant negative effects on the economy, including financial market disruptions and a loss of faith in the United States by international investors. Image: BofA Global Research
Annual Change in Monetary Supply Draining liquidity has historically been a major concern in financial markets, as it can lead to significant disruptions and have broader impacts on the economy. Image: Real Investment Advice