Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown The current environment poses an increased risk of a U.S. equity drawdown exceeding 20% over the next 12 months and 10% over the next 3 months, with a notable probability nearing 30%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Drawdowns While bear markets and corrections have historically been common, their occurrence has diminished since the 1990s, suggesting a shift in market behavior that investors should consider in their strategies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Largest Calendar Year Peak to Trough S&P 500 Drawdown While the S&P 500 has experienced significant drawdowns in the past, the drawdown in 2024 has been smaller than the median. Goldman Sachs maintains its S&P 500 index target of 5,600 for year-end 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Max Drawdown During Recessions Recessions can have a significant impact on stocks, causing pain for investors, with the majority of losses occurring within the actual recession period. Image: BofA Global Research
Fed Funds Rate Cuts and Max Drawdown S&P 500 Historically, Fed rate cuts are not bullish for the S&P 500. Image: Real Investment Advice
Drawdown from 12-Month Rolling Peak – S&P 500 Forward 12-Month Earnings-Per-Share Estimate The median decline in S&P 500 earnings over the past 12 recessions has been -13%. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Median S&P 500 Price Return After >25% Drawdown Should long-term investors add more risk to a diversified portfolio? Image: KKR & Co.
U.S. Yield Curve Inversion and Market Drawdowns The U.S. stock market is expected to bottom out well after the 10Y-3M yield curve un-inverts. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Drawdown from 52-Week High and S&P 500 Performance 1-Year Later Historically, the S&P 500 has been positive one year after a 33% decline from 52-week high. Image: Charles Schwab
U.S. Net Equity Future Positions of Asset Managers and Drawdown > 10% When will the U.S. equity bear market be over? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance During 20% Drawdowns Since 1950 How far will the S&P 500 Index fall this year? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research