U.S. Economic Surprise Index An increasing Economic Surprise Index not only signals improving economic conditions but also plays a pivotal role in enhancing investor sentiment, which can subsequently drive growth in equity markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Economic Surprise – CPI Surprise The improving economic surprise index and favorable macroeconomic conditions suggest that U.S. equities may better withstand inflation compared to previous cycles. Image: BofA Global Research
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. In May, the U.S. LEI decreased by 0.5%, which may indicate a more subdued economic environment in the near term. Image: The Conference Board
S&P 500 Index vs. U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index The S&P 500 Index and the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index are often closely correlated. But right now, bad news is good news, until it’s not. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Citi Economic Surprise Indexes The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) for the world economies is on the rise, outpacing the U.S. CESI, indicating that economic data for the world economies are surpassing expectations to a greater extent than in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth Economic growth is a driver of earnings growth, as it creates opportunities for businesses to expand their operations, increase sales, and generate higher profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. is on the rise, signaling that economic data releases are exceeding analyst expectations and pointing to a positive momentum in the U.S. economic performance. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Economic Expansions and Recessions There has been a general trend towards less frequent recessions in the United States over recent decades, which reflects the evolving nature of the U.S. economy and its resilience in the face of potential downturns Image: USAFacts
Median Policy Rate Projections in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections The anticipation of rate cuts in 2024 and beyond is generally viewed as bullish for equity markets, as it signals a potential easing of monetary policy that can support economic growth and stock prices. Image: BofA Global Research
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The Economic Output Composite Index is still in contraction territory, which could have a negative impact on asset prices as earnings estimates are revised downwards. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims U.S. jobless claims are still near historic lows, but are expected to rise in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management