Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth If the trade war does not escalate further, the effects from the new policies on U.S. GDP are small and largely offsetting in the baseline outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations The Q3 earnings season demonstrated the resilience of large U.S. companies in the face of economic challenges, with particularly strong showings from the technology sector. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Growth While mega-cap tech companies are likely to maintain their market dominance, their EPS growth may decelerate. This could potentially narrow the EPS growth gap between these tech giants and the median S&P 500 companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend Given that the S&P 500 CAPE ratio is experiencing one of the largest deviations from its long-term exponential growth trend in recorded history, it is reasonable to expect a reversion to the mean at some point. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Federal Debt Growth and Gold Price While the increase in U.S. federal debt has traditionally correlated with higher gold prices, multiple other factors significantly influence gold’s market value. Image: Deutsche Bank
Consensus Estimates EPS Growth Consensus estimates project a 14% growth in S&P 500 earnings per share for 2025, indicating a continued positive trend in corporate profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The International Monetary Fund forecasts that global growth will be 3.2% in 2024 and remain steady at this rate in 2025, indicating a resilient global economy despite challenges and uncertainties. Image: International Monetary Fund
U.S. GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expresses optimism regarding the resilience of the U.S. economy, forecasting a more favorable GDP growth outlook for 2025 than current consensus estimates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS Growth Consensus estimates suggest that 72% of S&P 500 companies are projected to report EPS growth in 3Q24, reflecting a broader trend of improving earnings outlooks across various sectors. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
FMS Investors – Average Percentile Rank of Growth Expectations, Cash Allocation, Equity Allocation The decline in pessimism among FMS investors is viewed as a positive indicator, suggesting a growing willingness to embrace risk. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
China GDP Growth Consensus Estimates GDP upgrades are likely to spur interest in China’s markets, encouraging asset allocation towards sectors that align with the country’s economic transformation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy