Search Results for: probability

Probability of Fed Rate Cut After the CPI data release, traders now estimate an 82.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Image: CME GRoup

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a US recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 29%, which is significantly higher than the long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 43.2% in October. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

U.S. Election Scenario Probability As Republicans gain momentum heading into the U.S. elections, the prospect of their sweeping victory raises both hopes for short-term economic gains and fears of larger deficits and sustained inflationary pressures. Image: Deutsche Bank

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The 12-month forward implied change in the federal funds rate indicates an 84% probability of a US recession occurring within the next year. Is this time different? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs has reduced its U.S. recession forecast probability from 20% to 15% based on recent macroeconomic data, especially a strong employment report that surpassed expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Recession Probability The consensus likelihood of a recession in the United States over the next 12 months is estimated to be around 30%, which points to a moderate risk of an economic downturn. Image: The Daily Shot

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 suggests a 26% probability of a recession in the United States, reflecting some concerns among investors. Analysts often use the current percentage change in the S&P 500 index to gauge the likelihood of an impending U.S. recession, given historical trends. On average, the…

Probability of Negative Returns, Based on S&P 500 Total Returns from 1929-Present Extending the investment time horizon allows investors to minimize U.S. equity losses, navigate short-term market fluctuations, and leverage the long-term growth potential of equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Probability of U.S. Recession within a Year Based on the tight spread between the S&P 500 and BBB-rated corporate bonds, the risk of a recession in the United States within one year appears low. Image: J.P. Morgan

Probability of U.S. Recession The decline in the one-year recession probability based on the S&P 500 and BBB spread is viewed as a positive sign, which could influence market sentiment and investment strategies. Image: J.P. Morgan