U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In December, U.S. building permits declined to 1.483 million, above expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline before recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Valuation – Real S&P 500 Index with Recessions and S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Investors face a delicate balance: while economic indicators show improvement, the market’s high valuations leave little room for error if conditions deteriorate. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In December, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.99% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Global Equities Around Fed Cut With And Without Recession Typically, global equities exhibit strong performance following the Fed’s first rate cut, when the economy avoids a recession in the subsequent 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.77% YoY in December. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate The recent dip in the Sahm Rule indicator below the 0.5 mark is encouraging, as it indicates that a U.S. recession is no longer likely. Image: Deutsche Bank
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs predicts a 15% chance of a U.S. recession in the next one year, which aligns with the long-term historical average for recession likelihood. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Historical Length of Recessions and Market Declines While a 20% decline may seem alarming for 2025, it reflects patterns that are often seen during bear markets, especially when economic conditions are challenging. Image: Real Investment Advice
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 1.32%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy truck sales rose in November to 491K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 30.8% in December. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland