Search Results for: recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In April, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.34% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stands at -6.34% YoY in April. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do not always guarantee one. However, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below…

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in March to 452K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 0.46%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 55.1% in April. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Gold Price vs. S&P 500 Index and Recessions Throughout history, gold has been considered a safe haven during market declines. Since 2015, its correlation with U.S. stocks has strengthened, making it more likely for gold to move in sync with U.S. stocks during market downturns. Image: Real Investment Advice

FMS Investors – Net % Saying Recession Likely The outlook among FMS investors regarding the possibility of a global recession in the near future is characterized by a much greater sense of optimism. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs’ outlook suggests a positive sentiment regarding the U.S. economy’s ability to avoid recession in the near future, with only a 15% chance of recession in the next one year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In March, U.S. building permits declined to 1,458 million below expectations. Before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

S&P 500 After Initial Fed Rate Cuts Outside Of Recession Outside of recessions, U.S. stocks have tended to rise after the Fed’s first rate cut, with an average gain of 15% within 12 months. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics