U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In October, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.27% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales Over the past two years, real retail sales in the U.S. have remained weak, indicating a persistent sluggishness in consumer spending. Image: Real Investment Advice
G3 Real Core Retail Sales Since 2019, real core retail sales in the United States have risen significantly, while Germany has seen stagnant growth and Japan has witnessed a decline, reflecting differing economic conditions and consumer behaviors. Image: BofA Global Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and Autos vs. Retail When there is robust economic growth, it is generally expected that the autos sector would outperform the retail sector. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Labor Market – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Retail Sales Higher payrolls can potentially lead to higher retail sales, as increased income for employees can result in greater purchasing power. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Flows – Retail Money Market Funds As interest rates increase, inflows into retail money market funds continue to exhibit strength. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Retail Sales Recent U.S. retail sales data shows that there is a slowdown in consumer spending, which can have a detrimental effect on the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Inflation – U.S. Headline CPI and Retail Gasoline Price Should U.S. equity investors remain bullish as there is a high correlation between U.S. headline CPI and retail gasoline prices? Image: BCA Research
U.S. Retail Inventories Retail inventories in the United States continue to rise. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Retail Favorites Will retail investor stock picks continue to underperform the S&P 500 this year? Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Performance and Discretionary Retail Spending (Leading Indicator) The performance of the S&P 500 tends to lead discretionary retail spending by 9 months. Image: TS Lombard