U.S. Economic Surprise Index An increasing Economic Surprise Index not only signals improving economic conditions but also plays a pivotal role in enhancing investor sentiment, which can subsequently drive growth in equity markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Economic Surprise – CPI Surprise The improving economic surprise index and favorable macroeconomic conditions suggest that U.S. equities may better withstand inflation compared to previous cycles. Image: BofA Global Research
Citi U.S. Inflation Surprise Index Equities tend to perform well when the U.S. Economic Surprise Index increases, as this index indicates how much economic data surpasses expectations. Image: The Daily Shot
1-Day Post-Reporting Performance vs. S&P 500 on EPS and Sales Surprise Companies that exceeded both sales and EPS expectations outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.4ppt the following day, which is the strongest performance since 4Q2018 and considerably higher than the historical average of 1.5ppt. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Index vs. U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index The S&P 500 Index and the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index are often closely correlated. But right now, bad news is good news, until it’s not. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Earnings Surprise A strong 7% earnings surprise in the first quarter indicates robust performance by S&P 500 companies, which is likely to have a positive impact on investor confidence. Image: BofA Global Research
Citi Economic Surprise Indexes The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) for the world economies is on the rise, outpacing the U.S. CESI, indicating that economic data for the world economies are surpassing expectations to a greater extent than in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Citi Economic Surprise Index The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. is on the rise, signaling that economic data releases are exceeding analyst expectations and pointing to a positive momentum in the U.S. economic performance. Image: BofA Global Research
Rolling 12-Month EPS Surprise vs. ISM PMI Are markets too optimistic? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Trade-Weighted Dollar vs. G10 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Will the U.S. dollar trend weaker in 2023? Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Earnings Surprise % Recent earnings surprises are slightly positive. Image: Morgan Stanley Research