U.S. Labor Market – Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” Shifts in consumer perceptions regarding job availability suggest notable changes that could potentially lead to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Survey – Percentage of Investors Expecting Landing Scenarios In BofA’s August credit investor survey, 74% of investors anticipate a soft landing, reflecting a significant increase in optimism despite recent market volatility. Image: BofA Global Research
Survey – Credit Investors: What Are Your Biggest Concerns? The 2024 U.S. election outcome could significantly impact fiscal policy, debt, interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, which are key concerns for U.S. credit investors. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data A “soft recession” occurs when the manufacturing side of the U.S. economy contracts while services remain robust, leading to a period of slower economic activity. Image: Real Investment Advice
Survey – Bitcoin Price Over one-third of people surveyed believe that the price of Bitcoin will be below $20,000 at the end of 2024. Is it time to be contrarian on Bitcoin? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Senior Loan Officers Survey (SLOOS) and U.S. GDP The U.S. Senior Loan Officers Survey (SLOOS) doesn’t bode well for U.S. GDP in the coming quarters. Image: Deutsche Bank
Senior Loan Officer Survey and S&P 500 EPS A continued slowdown in earnings growth is expected through the end of the year. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Earnings – S&P 500 12-Month Fwd EPS vs. EPS Implied by Credit and Manufacturing Surveys Could an earnings recession be a significant risk for U.S. stocks? Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Manufacturing Surveys with Advanced Releases Will the U.S. manufacturing sector struggle to recover in the near-term? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Net Margin and NFIB Small Business Survey: Demand vs. Wage Cost Composite (Leading Indicator) Is there a risk of further decline in S&P 500 margins? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Philadelphia Fed General Activity vs. U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey Regional business activity surveys suggest a lower ISM Manufacturing PMI over the coming months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research