Effect of the Trade War on U.S. Real GDP Growth Assuming no further escalation, the trade war drag on real GDP growth is expected to gradually fade over the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Effect of the Trade War on China Real GDP Growth The trade war drag on China real GDP growth is expected to peak in Q4 2019. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Corporate CCC-Rated Bonds Diverge During Trade War As the chart suggests, CCC-rated bonds are not the canary in the coal mine. The divergence in option-adjusted spreads between CCCs and higher-rated issues reflects the impact of the US-China trade war. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Trade War – S&P 500 Peaks and U.S. Trade Policy What is the likelihood of a trade deal between the U.S. and China? Past market peaks have been followed by major trade escalations. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. and China – Effect of the Trade War on Real GDP Growth Assuming no further escalation, the trade war drag on real GDP growth is expected to peak in Q4 2019. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Trade War: U.S. State Exports to China The trade war is hurting exports to China across the U.S.. Image: Bloomberg
Trade War: Winners and Losers Chart showing the biggest winners and losers of imports to the U.S. in the past year. Image: Macrobond
Effect on U.S. GDP Growth from Financial Conditions, Fiscal Policy and Trade War Financial Conditions should offset the effect of the trade war in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The Trade War Cycle The following picture helps to understand Trump’s trade war tactics. Image: StockCats
US-China Trade War and Past Major Trade Conflicts In the past, tariffs were in place for long periods of time. The US-China trade war is hitting global growth, by his importance, size and scope. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Trade War – Probability of a US-China Trade Deal The market-implied probability of a US-China trade deal rises to 40%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research