Forward EPS YoY % Change vs. S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change Corporate earnings play a key role in shaping market performance. In 2025, the expected U.S. economic slowdown might limit their growth, challenging stock…
S&P 500 Returns After a Golden Cross (50-Day MA Above the 200-Day MA) Since 1950, the S&P 500’s golden cross has been a reliable bullish signal, generating median returns of 13% over the following year,…
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns Throughout history, steep declines in consumer sentiment have often been followed by strong stock market rallies over the next year, making these sentiment lows a potentially…
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Even with average intra-year drops of 14.1%, the S&P 500 achieved positive annual returns in 34 out of the past 45 years, highlighting the importance of staying…
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 While the pace of earnings growth for the Magnificent Seven is expected to moderate from the explosive gains of recent years, they are still forecast…
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500’s top 10 stocks hold a disproportionately large share of the index’s weight relative to their earnings,…
U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The U.S. public debt has reached unprecedented levels both in absolute terms and relative to the economy, raising significant concerns about the country’s fiscal sustainability and economic future.…
Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) The high valuation levels seen today in U.S. and global equity markets often suggest a risk of reduced future returns, unless earnings growth picks up enough to…
Global Gold Reserves vs. Global Dollar Reserves Amid rising geopolitical tensions and a shifting global financial landscape, central banks worldwide are increasingly favoring gold over the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset. Image: Blomberg
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability The market-implied probability suggests a modestly elevated risk of a U.S. recession within the next year, slightly above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It…