U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator On Wednesday last week, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator flashed neutral, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.29% on the day. Using multiple financial data, this great…
S&P 500 and Relative Strength Index (RSI) Right now, the 14-week RSI is nearing 70. When it previously climbed above 80, the S&P 500 saw an average 27% decline with an RSI lead time of…
S&P 500 Performance During Government Shutdowns Shutdown headlines can spark short-term volatility, yet the market’s track record tells a different story—since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12.7% rise in the 12 months after…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 October has a reputation for delivering gains in the S&P 500, but the ride is rarely smooth, with volatility and uncertainty often clouding the rally. Image:…
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally After a powerful rally, the S&P 500 looks stretched, and the odds of a near-term pullback—or at best, a sideways pause—are building. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed has revised its Q4 2025 U.S. real GDP Nowcast upward to 2.46%, from 2.18% last week, signaling continued economic growth. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New…
Annual Average IPO Return During First Trading Day The average U.S. IPO in 2025 has popped 30% on debut, with 72% of the 46 listings this year finishing their first session in the green—a sign…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.80%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
S&P 500 Performance Around Growth Score Peak U.S. equities tend to perform well on average following growth score peaks, particularly if there is no recession and policy easing occurs. In that backdrop, valuations can be…
Positions in S&P 500 Equity Futures by Asset Managers U.S. stocks may be hitting fresh highs, but asset managers’ futures positioning remains lighter than it was at the start of the year, leaving room for…
S&P 500 Valuation Despite lofty valuations, the fuel behind U.S. stock market performance this year has been earnings growth, not multiple expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research