Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales Real retail sales in the U.S. have been weak in recent years, indicating ongoing sluggishness in consumer spending—a pattern that has historically been associated with an increased risk of…
NYSE Margin Debt The current high—but not extreme—levels of margin debt, compared to past blow-off tops, suggest frothy market conditions with some room for additional leverage. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization While short interest in the S&P 500 has sharply risen in recent months—suggesting more caution among investors—it does not currently signal broad bearishness or…
S&P 500 vs. Liquidity Index A slowdown in liquidity growth—particularly if combined with soft economic data—poses a short-term risk to the U.S. equity market, increasing volatility and the likelihood of price declines. Image: TS Lombard
Magnificent Seven Earnings Growth Expectations and Delivered The Mag 7 companies are currently the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth, with an expected 14% year-over-year growth in Q2 2025, far exceeding the remainder of…
Fed Fund Rate Forecasts Nomura anticipates a measured easing cycle from the Fed beginning in December 2025 with a total of three 25 bps cuts through early 2026, driving the terminal policy rate down to…
Average Relative Performance of S&P 500 Additions Stocks added to the S&P 500 index typically experience their strongest outperformance before the official announcement, as market participants anticipate and position for the change. Image: Goldman Sachs…
U.S. Tech Stocks Since April lows, tech stocks rebounded strongly on AI growth and solid earnings, but high valuations and margin pressures from ongoing AI infrastructure investments could lead to volatility in coming quarters. Image:…
M2 Money Supply Growth U.S. money supply growth has robustly returned to near its long-term trend. In contrast, the euro area has experienced a slight slowdown in money supply growth recently, although growth rates remain…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment A reading of 81.07 indicates that active managers remain confident in the U.S. stock market, maintaining substantial equity allocations that reflect positive market sentiment—though not necessarily extreme exuberance. The National…
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It…