Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 20%, which…
Forward EPS YoY % Change vs. S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change Corporate earnings’ annual changes are often reflected in market performance. Should the U.S. economy cool down in 2025, we may observe a downturn…
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index increased 3% in February. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that the U.S.…
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Consensus earnings estimates have been reduced more than usual for first quarters, primarily due to the direct impacts of a stronger dollar and tariffs, rather than a broad economic slowdown. Image:…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Wall Street bears think every bull market is just smoke and mirrors. And when the crash finally hits, they love to say, “We told you so!” Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone!…
S&P 500 Corrections and Recessions Deutsche Bank Research analysis shows that in 12% of S&P 500 corrections, a recession had already begun. Moreover, in 56% of cases, no recession occurred within a year before or…
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A declining U.S. Economic Surprise Index, caused by economic data consistently underperforming expectations, can negatively impact equity performance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic equity positioning has dropped to the 24th percentile, indicating a increasingly cautious approach. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In February, building permits in the U.S. rose to 1.456 million, exceeding expectations. Historically, they tend to peak and then decline before economic recessions.…
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders’ optimism for a Fed rate cut at today’s FOMC meeting is virtually non-existent, with market expectations showing only a 1% probability of a…
S&P 500 Performance After Two 90% Advancing Issues in a Row Since 1980, two consecutive days with 90% advancing issues in the S&P 500 have delivered a median return of 16.5% over the following 12…