Global Equities Around Fed Cut With And Without Recession Typically, global equities exhibit strong performance following the Fed’s first rate cut, when the economy avoids a recession in the subsequent 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown The current environment poses an increased risk of a U.S. equity drawdown exceeding 20% over the next 12 months and 10% over the next 3 months, with a notable…
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Market sentiment indicators are signaling a risk-on attitude among investors, highlighting their increasing willingness to embrace riskier assets in today’s economic landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Deutsche Bank projects that S&P 500 earnings growth will increase from 8.7% year-over-year in Q3 to 12.8% in Q4, aligning with the low double-digit growth typically seen outside of recessions. Image:…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The S&P 500 took a nosedive of 1.94% this week, leaving bears popping champagne while bulls search for their lost party hats, wondering if the market will continue to slide…
Stocks – High Quality Relative Earnings Revisions Breadth and High Quality Factor Relative Performance In a late-cycle market, investors looking for stability might find high-quality stocks appealing, given their historical ability to provide robust protection…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.77% YoY in December. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
How Survey Responders Think the S&P 500 Will Perform Over the Year Ahead 35% of respondents expect the S&P 500 index to appreciate between 5% and 10% by the end of 2025, while 24% expect…
Forward EPS YoY % Change vs. S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change Market performance typically reflects annual changes in corporate earnings. Should the U.S. economy experience a slowdown in 2025, we may see a decline…
2 Year Calendarized S&P 500 Performance Starting in January With a remarkable increase over the last two years, the S&P 500 illustrates a robust recovery and renewed investor confidence, delighting market bulls. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate The recent dip in the Sahm Rule indicator below the 0.5 mark is encouraging, as it indicates that a U.S. recession is no longer likely. Image: Deutsche…