U.S. Economic Surprise Index A declining U.S. Economic Surprise Index, caused by economic data consistently underperforming expectations, can negatively impact equity performance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic equity positioning has dropped to the 24th percentile, indicating a increasingly cautious approach. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In February, building permits in the U.S. rose to 1.456 million, exceeding expectations. Historically, they tend to peak and then decline before economic recessions.…

Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders’ optimism for a Fed rate cut at today’s FOMC meeting is virtually non-existent, with market expectations showing only a 1% probability of a…

S&P 500 Performance After Two 90% Advancing Issues in a Row Since 1980, two consecutive days with 90% advancing issues in the S&P 500 have delivered a median return of 16.5% over the following 12…

Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning The sharp decline in the positioning of mega-cap growth and tech stocks, now at the 33rd percentile, highlights a significant reduction in investors’ appetite for risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

Equities – Global Valuation Range Compared to their U.S. counterparts, Japanese and Italian equities seem relatively undervalued. Even after the recent market sell-off, U.S. stocks maintain premium valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bears are preparing for the apocalypse, while bulls are partying like it’s 1999, convinced the U.S. economy is recession-proof—until it isn’t! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index Excluding the effects of the equity market downturn, U.S. financial conditions demonstrate resilience, suggesting a favorable environment for economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Gold Adjusted for Inflation Despite gold’s recent rally to $3,000 per ounce in 2025, which happened more quickly than most analysts anticipated, it remains significantly below its all-time inflation-adjusted peak of approximately $3,800 per ounce,…

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In February, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.28% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession…