ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 index down 2.88% YTD, bears are feeling pretty smart. Meanwhile, bulls are like, “Did you see the 3.45% gain over the last 9 trading days? Party…

What Do You Think the Probability of There Being a U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months Is? Deutsche Bank’s survey of 400 financial professionals worldwide indicates an average 43% expectation of a U.S. recession…

COMEX Copper Price The Trump administration may impose 25% copper import tariffs within weeks, sparking market volatility as traders rush shipments to the U.S., driving copper prices to record highs. Image: The Daily Shot

Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index The current extreme bearish sentiment, historically linked to market bottoms, suggests the potential for a reflexive rally rather than signaling an impending downturn. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Spreads While tight high-yield credit spreads generally reflect robust market confidence, they can also serve as a warning of excessive investor complacency. Given this dual nature, it’s crucial to monitor…

CEO Confidence CEO optimism and equity market performance are closely linked, with market downturns frequently leading to decreased executive confidence and reduced capital investment plans. Image: Deutsche Bank

Small Cap Equity Positioning Small-cap equity allocations are currently low, sitting at the 33rd percentile. This suggests potential for increased small-cap allocation among many investors, particularly those with long-term investment horizons. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day In Wall Street, bears are like the prophets of doom, except instead of a fiery apocalypse, it’s just a market correction! Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone! 🐫🐪😎

Housing – CME Lumber Futures Price The combination of increased tariffs, supply constraints, and strong demand is creating a challenging environment for the lumber market, leading to significant price increases that are expected to continue…

Oil, 10 Year U.S. Treasury Yields and U.S. Dollar The increasing cohesion in recent years between oil prices, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar reflects deeper economic linkages and heightened sensitivity to policy…

U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Consensus Probability of a U.S. Recessions in the Next 12 Months Although fears of a U.S. recession have been mounting, the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve’s recent steepening suggests a…