U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank’s baseline forecast depicts a U.S. economy maintaining robust growth, with inflation gradually approaching the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment declining by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows Even with the S&P 500 at record levels, investors continue to favor safe assets over risky ones, suggesting a persistent perception of market risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
U.S. Tech Stocks vs. China Tech Stocks As the U.S. market experiences an AI frenzy, China’s major technology stocks struggle, reflecting investor pessimism towards China’s economic revival efforts and concerns about AI monetization and trade…
S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains Historically, since 1950, when the S&P 500 records gains of over 5% in November, it tends to continue this momentum, averaging a 12.8% return one year…
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index The U.S. ISM manufacturing index in November stands at 48.4%, above the consensus forecast of 47.6%, which is indicative of a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This chart…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy truck sales fell in October to 390K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the…
S&P 500 Return – Year 3 of Bull Market Like a kid who loses interest in his favorite toy after two years, the S&P 500 tends to slow down in the third year of a…
Annual Percentage Change in the S&P 500 The S&P 500’s recent performance is like a magician’s trick: impressive, but don’t be surprised if the rabbit doesn’t come out of the hat in 2025! Historical trends…
U.S. Recession Probability The consensus likelihood of a recession in the United States over the next year is estimated to be around 25%, which points to a moderate risk of an economic downturn. Image: Deutsche…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day In a bull market, asking a bear how to make more money is like asking a cat to take a bath—neither is likely to cooperate, especially with the U.S. stock…
S&P 500 Performance After Major Milestone Levels Are Hit Market optimism is so high, even bears are buying “Bull Market 2025” t-shirts, as the S&P 500 index has consistently risen in the six months following…