S&P 500 Annual Return vs. Annual Return Ex-10 Best Days The “rule of 10 best days” highlights the risks of market timing. Since 2015, excluding the 10 best trading days each year would have turned…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day President Trump’s policies are “Making Volatility Great Again,” as bulls navigate turbulent markets while bears rejoice! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Global Recession Probability Model vs. MSCI ACWI NDR’s Global Recession Probability Model is at its lowest level in nearly four years, signaling a positive outlook for global equities. Image: Ned Davis Research
Changes in Financial Conditions Since Trump’s Inauguration The “Trump trade,” as initially advertised, was characterized by expectations of a stronger U.S. dollar, rising equities, higher yields, and narrower credit spreads—the opposite of current market conditions.…
Conference Board CEO Confidence CEO optimism is closely tied to equity market performance, with market declines often precipitating a drop in executive confidence. Image: Deutsche Bank
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators While sentiment and positioning were highly bullish at the end of 2024, recent setbacks have emerged. The resurgence of “Trumponomics” has increased volatility, prompting investors to adopt more defensive strategies.…
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield This chart shows a good correlation between Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and 10-year Treasury yield. Lower yields ahead? You may also like “For the Last Few Years,…
Gold / U.S. Average Worker’s Wage Despite a bullish outlook fueled by declining interest rates and ongoing central bank purchases, gold is seen as expensive relative to the average wage of a U.S. worker. Image:…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Wall Street bears are convinced the bull market is just a mirage, while bulls are blissfully ignoring any mention of risk, claiming they have a temporary, but highly enjoyable, case…
Market-Implied Fed Funds Rate and 2-Year U.S. Inflation Swap Current market pricing of Fed rate cuts indicates a pivot from inflation worries to growth concerns, suggesting investors expect the Fed to prioritize economic stability over…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Performance Post-Election Years Since 1950, the U.S. stock market has historically shown strong performance in March, April, and May during post-election years, offering bulls reasons for optimism. Image: Carson Investment…