Gold Drawdown from Its Trailing Previous Peak Gold has just suffered one of its steepest pullbacks in more than a decade. The drop looks less like the start of a lasting reversal and more like…

Different Market Sentiment Indicators With volatility easing, market sentiment is turning more bullish, but still far from euphoric, leaving room for more upside. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q3 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.37% from 2.42% last week, keeping the growth picture broadly intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York…

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.44%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…

Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has pulled back from extreme levels, but it still points to a market leaning risk-on rather than turning bearish. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities U.S. equity inflows have been running hot this year, with leveraged bets on U.S. exceptionalism still firmly in place. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Expectations are running high: analysts see S&P 500 earnings jumping 24% in 2026 and 17% in 2027, with small caps set to steal the spotlight, posting 41% growth this year and…

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 The Mag-7 has weighed on U.S. indices since October 2025, with selling pressure accelerating in June as investors began to question returns…

S&P 500 Index and Technical Score Despite semiconductors taking a hit last week, the S&P 500 remains overbought at 85.22, which leaves little room for disappointment. Image: Real Investment Advice

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 July has been a friendly month for U.S. stocks, with average returns of 0.8% going back to 1964. If that seasonal pattern holds, bulls could have…

Gold Model Using a model that incorporates real yields, the dollar, the S&P 500, and copper, gold now appears to be trading near fair value again. That leaves investors with a neutral signal. Image: Bloomberg