U.S. Equity Risk Indicator and S&P 500 The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is flashing red, warning that the S&P 500 may be running hot. History shows that once this metric hits extreme levels, significant equity…

Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning sits modestly overweight at the 65th percentile. With positioning well below crowded levels, there’s still room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Insider Transactions Ratio Insider buying and selling are in balance, with the Insider Transactions Ratio stuck in neutral. For now, insiders aren’t sending investors a clear signal. Image: Barron’s

Gold Net Speculative Positioning Speculative positioning in gold has reversed sharply in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs still sees prices reaching $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite still argues for a constructive 2026. The early-year correction suggests the market has already digested much of the typical midterm election weakness.…

MSCI AC World EPS The Street keeps lifting MSCI AC World EPS targets for 2026 and 2027, betting AI will lift margins without blowing up capex. So where’s the bubble: in earnings or just in…

S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns The S&P 500 typically gives back about 14% at some point each year. Investors hate it, but they also got rewarded: the index closed higher in 35…

AAII Sentiment Survey The crowd is less convinced the sky is falling. AAII’s bull-bear spread has climbed back into positive territory for the first time since mid‑July, as U.S. retail pessimism shows early signs of…

Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has pulled back from the highs but is still overweight, now sitting in the 66th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio – Average Real Returns Over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE With the CAPE ratio now above 40, the setup for the next decade looks grim. In past episodes…

S&P 500 Index Performance After The First Fed Rate Hike Historically, the S&P 500 has weathered the Fed’s first rate hike better than investors might expect. Following an initial 25 bp move, the index often…