S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years usually make U.S. stocks more volatile, with policy uncertainty running high before voters head to the polls. Investors hate uncertainty, and election years bring plenty of it.…
Insider Transactions Ratio Corporate insiders are still in buying mode, keeping the Insider Transactions Ratio in bullish territory and adding a dose of optimism to U.S. stocks. Investors often read renewed insider buying as a…
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Middle East tensions haven’t rattled Wall Street’s mood. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings to jump 17% in both 2026 and 2027, while small-cap profits could surge 48% this year and another…
Discretionary Investor Positioning With exposure sitting at the 19th percentile, discretionary investors remain notably cautious. Any shift in sentiment could open the door to further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have tactically reduced their equity exposure recently to the 43rd percentile, though their positioning stays firmly on the long side. The move shows they’re cautiously optimistic. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Risk appetite remains underpinned by steady global equity inflows, but investors have turned more cautious over the past two months as markets take a breather. This looks like prudence, not fear.…
Brent Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs has lifted its 2026 oil price forecast, now seeing Brent crude averaging $85 a barrel and WTI at $79, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets…
Financials Group Positioning Positioning in financials remains exceptionally light, sitting in just the 2nd percentile, leaving plenty of room to add exposure. That caution looks overdone given the fundamentals. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs puts the odds of a U.S. recession at 30% over the next year, a level higher than the long-term historical average but still implying…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 50.97, squarely in neutral territory, after sentiment took a hit last week. The selloff has been sharp, and while a short-term…
S&P 500 Returns After 200 Days or More Above the 200-Day MA End Losing the 200-day moving average after staying above it for 200 days or more has usually meant a period of consolidation rather…