S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years Under President Trump, the S&P 500 has often seen early-year weakness, with lows clustering in late March. If the pattern repeats, 2026 could keep climbing, despite a new Fed…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 66, market participants are growing more comfortable taking risks. This is not euphoria yet, but confidence is holding up. Image: Cable…
Equity Positioning and Earnings Growth Positioning in equities continues to lag S&P 500 earnings growth, leaving scope for the rally to run if revisions hold up and macro risks remain contained. That dynamic could pull…
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At 16 times forward earnings compared with 21 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index is hardly a bargain, but it looks more attractive on a relative basis. Image: Goldman…
AAII Sentiment Survey The AAII bull-bear spread is close to neutral as both bullish and bearish responses picked up over the past week. U.S. retail investors are not showing signs of euphoria, which argues against…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 77.34, the latest reading shows that active managers are taking their foot off the accelerator in U.S. equities, pointing to a cooler but still confident market mood. The National…
Retail Share of Trading Volumes in Select U.S. Equity Index ETF Since 2021 Retail traders are piling into leveraged U.S. equity index ETFs, hardly a surprise given their long-standing appetite for leverage. The trade looks…
S&P 500 Technical Composite Under the hood, a composite of technical breadth measures shows the S&P 500 running hot, pointing to limited near-term upside and a growing risk of a pullback. Image: MarketDesk Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are pricing in a steady growth path. Relative performance between cyclical and defensive sectors points to roughly 1.7% U.S. real GDP…
Cumulative Change in Consensus 2026 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure stocks have seen 2026 earnings estimates jump 55% since December 2024, versus just 7% for the broader S&P 500. Strip them out and earnings fall 1%.…
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies sit in the 64th percentile, while discretionary investor positioning is at the 58th percentile, pointing to positioning that is not yet crowded and can still expand. Image: Deutsche…