S&P 500 Around First Fed Rate Hikes vs. Speed of Hikes In fast tightening cycles, the S&P 500 typically struggles in the 12 months post-first hike; in slow or no cycles, it tends to rally.…

Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are still leaning bullish, sitting in the 85th percentile and firmly overweight. Discretionary investors are more cautious, back to neutral at the 47th percentile, with room to add…

Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still trading as if nothing can go wrong, the next five years are likely to deliver thinner returns. The businesses are outstanding, but price…

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 1.46% YoY in August. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…

S&P 500 Performance in this Cycle Measured against prior four-year election cycles, the current bull market is unusually powerful: the S&P 500 is up nearly 100% since the end of 2022, the second-strongest performance in…

Average S&P 500 Performance Midterm years typically bring a bumpy start to the second half for the S&P 500, with sellers gaining traction into October as summer ends. Post-election, the market has a habit of…

MSCI World Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield When bond yields climb, equities often take a hit or simply lose momentum. The pattern is familiar: P/E multiples stall and money rotates out of long‑duration growth…

S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine‑decade trend. Can profits stay this far ahead of history? If they drift back toward the mean, today’s rich multiples could…

U.S. Dollar Net Positioning U.S. dollar positioning remains stretched. Historically, a softer greenback has typically lifted stocks and added fuel to equity rallies. Image: J.P. Morgan

Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index is at 68.43, down from recent peaks as sentiment cools over the last three weeks. Not a red flag, but with September in…

U.S. Equity Risk Indicator and S&P 500 The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is flashing red, warning that the S&P 500 may be running hot. History shows that once this metric hits extreme levels, significant equity…