Nine Day Win Streaks for the S&P 500 Nine-day winning streaks have been a reliable bullish signal for the S&P 500. In every instance since 1990, the index has been higher 12 months later, delivering…

Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are in the 72nd percentile versus 60th for discretionary investors, a divergence that points to a market that is not yet overcrowded and could push further. Image: Deutsche…

Consolidated Equity Positioning At the 66th percentile, consolidated equity positioning is moderately overweight but still far from crowded, keeping the path open for further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Daily Percentage Change in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 10.26% last Friday, its sharpest decline since March 2020. The long-term story remains intact, but expectations had clearly overheated. Image:…

MSCI AC World EPS Analysts are steadily raising MSCI AC World EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027, betting the AI and tech surge will boost margins and profits instead of fueling another round of excess…

U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator Animal spirits are building, but not yet overheating. Retail activity and Goldman Sachs’s Speculative Trading Indicator are firm, still short of past cycle peaks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks relative to the S&P 500 were hovering near the top of a decade-long trend channel. The latest pullback…

Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock sits at 3.2%, a relatively elevated level, but the rise appears driven by hedging activity rather than…

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a US recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs puts the odds closer to 25%,…

Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index now stands at 72.64, back in greed territory. While the current decline may have further to run, it still looks like a pullback…

S&P 500 Returns After >19% in Two Months Since the late-March lows, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 19%. In similar rebounds, stocks have typically pushed higher over one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month horizons,…