Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns August and September have rarely been kind to U.S. stocks, posting some of the weakest average returns of the year. With July, normally a strong month, now…
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning is in the 37th percentile, just below neutral and nowhere near crowded, which leaves room for more upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing picked up speed in July. The ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 55.6, beating expectations of 54 and notching a seventh straight month of expansion. Momentum is…
Equity Net Long Positioning – Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers Net Future Positions Leveraged funds and asset managers have piled into long S&P 500 futures, pushing net exposure to a record. That screams risk appetite,…
Valuations – S&P 500 12-Month Fwd P/E Multiple – Top 5 Largest Stocks vs. Other 495 Stocks After nearly a decade of commanding sky-high multiples, the five largest U.S. stocks have lost their valuation premium,…
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine-decade trend line. Any pullback toward the mean would make today’s rich valuations look fragile fast. Image: Deutsche Bank
Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate There’s no sign of cracks in earnings momentum. Almost 88% of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates, with the beat rate running well ahead of the 74%…
Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 EPS Equal-weight S&P 500 prices and EPS have risen steadily together. Earnings are still doing the heavy lifting, but the gains are uneven and increasingly concentrated in a handful of…
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Goldman Sachs still sees steady earnings growth powering a 17% rise in the S&P 500 to 8,000 in 2026, even as volatility remains part of the landscape. Image: Goldman…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index climbed to 77.29 after earnings from large-cap stocks, with investors still firmly bullish and showing little sign of worry. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative June and July The S&P 500 fell 0.1% in July. Bulls can call it noise, but bears will see a familiar pattern. Since 1950, when both June and July…