S&P 500 Average Monthly Performance Under President Trump September seasonality is flashing green. Under President Trump, U.S. stocks have closed higher in September in four out of five years, giving bulls reason to smile. Image:…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Call it the September drag. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has lost an average 0.7% in the month and finished higher in just 46% of Septembers.…
Insider Transactions Ratio Insider buying and selling are back in equilibrium, pushing the Insider Transactions Ratio back to neutral. For now, insiders are giving investors no clear message. Image: Barron’s
Crypto Fund Flows Last week, cryptocurrency funds saw their biggest weekly inflows since May, driven largely by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutional money is back, and so is the risk appetite. Image: Deutsche…
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTA positioning is edging lower, but the signal is mixed. The S&P 500 sits at the 62nd percentile, the Nasdaq-100 lags at the 36th, and the Russell 2000 looks stretched at…
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are still leaning bullish, sitting in the 82nd percentile and overweight. Discretionary investors are more cautious, at the 45th percentile and slightly underweight, with plenty of room to…
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds are maxed on equities at the 100th percentile. Risk appetite looks solid, but there’s barely any room left to buy more. Any vol spike now risks a…
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, remains deep in euphoria territory. When the crowd is this bullish, the risk…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.60%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 68.07, down from recent peaks as sentiment has cooled over the past two weeks. No alarm bells yet, but with September…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is…