Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns As bears freeze, U.S. stocks catch fire in November: the strongest month on average since 1950, the best past 10 years, the second best in midterm years,…
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning remains close to neutral, at the 44th percentile, leaving investors room to add risk if sentiment improves. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 and 2027 Goldman Sachs is sticking with its S&P 500 targets: 8,000 by year-end and 8,700 over the next 12 months. Earnings growth, rather than valuation expansion, is expected…
Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Hyperscaler capex has held fairly steady this earnings season, breaking from the faster pace of recent quarters. Analysts expect spending to reach $808 billion in 2026, $1.163 trillion in 2027, and…
Realized and Consensus Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow AI spending is set to keep hyperscaler free cash flow in the red through 2027, before a recovery in 2028. For now, the cash burn is the price…
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Demand for U.S. stocks remains resilient, even at high valuations. The Nasdaq 100 trades at 22 times forward earnings, above its 20-year median, compared with 19 times for…
Performance – MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 MCG & Tech relative performance is back at the bottom of its long-run trend channel. It has rebounded sharply from this level…
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors remain on the defensive. The AAII bull-bear spread’s 52-week moving average has been negative for 72 consecutive weeks, even as the S&P 500 has gained 29% over the same…
U.S. Share Buyback Authorization Announcements Investors are fixated on AI spending. Meanwhile, U.S. companies have authorized a record $1.268 trillion in buybacks so far this year, giving equities a significant source of support. Image: Goldman…
18 AI Buildout Names = 33.6% of the S&P 500 If the AI complex falls 20% while everything else holds steady, the S&P 500 would drop 6.7%. The other 485 stocks would need to rise…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment With the NAAIM Exposure Index at 76.84, active managers appear cautious but far from bearish, keeping substantial exposure to U.S. stocks. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks…