Average Year for the S&P 500 the Past 20 Years Over the past two decades, mid-March has often been a pivot point for U.S. stocks, with rallies frequently taking hold soon after. History may not…

S&P 500 Return Around Geopolitical Risk Events The latest moves in the S&P 500 recall how markets have historically absorbed geopolitical risks: brief pullbacks followed by rebounds, often back to pre-shock levels in roughly a…

Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning, at the 38th percentile, sits just below neutral, offering upside potential should momentum pick up. So far, that shift has yet to materialize. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Spikes in oil prices typically push up headline inflation, but the effect on inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, is limited and usually short-lived. Energy shocks often…

U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Valuations remain lofty at 21 times forward earnings for the S&P 500 and 25 for the Nasdaq 100, but investors aren’t backing off, convinced the earnings story still…

Change in Global Financial Conditions Following 8 Largest Geopolitical Risk Shocks in the Middle East Even though past Middle East conflicts haven’t consistently tightened financial conditions, the global FCI is up 31bp. Sustained at this…

Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator holds steady at 0.4, keeping it in neutral territory, a level that has often preceded a rebound in the S&P 500 over the next…

Global Crude Oil Export Global crude exports have tumbled as conflict flares across the Middle East, rattling supply routes. Analysts see several weeks of disruption but some relief ahead if tensions cool. Image: J.P. Morgan…

S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Goldman Sachs is sticking with its bullish call, betting on a 12% gain in the S&P 500 to 7,600 this year, fueled by healthy growth, solid earnings, and a…

Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the…

S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 The recent choppy trade fits the script of the four-year presidential cycle’s midterm-year rhythm. From March to April, the S&P 500 often rallies toward its yearly peak before sentiment…