S&P 500 Performance After >10% April/May Returns The S&P 500 surged 16.1% in April and May, the second-best performance on record. History suggests momentum tends to carry. In prior double-digit gains, June has always been…
Consolidated Equity Positioning At the 61st percentile, consolidated equity positioning is moderately overweight but far from crowded, leaving the door open for further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Insider Transactions Ratio As buying and selling come into balance, the Insider Transactions Ratio has returned to neutral territory. Corporate insiders appear to be pausing, with no strong conviction either way. Image: Barron’s
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) Valuations in U.S. and global equities remain stretched, with earnings momentum doing most of the work. As long as companies keep posting solid results, investors seem willing…
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing continued to gain traction in May, with the ISM Manufacturing Index rising to 54, above expectations of 53.1, and marking a fifth straight month of expansion.…
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech sits in the 95th percentile, a crowded, overweight trade that looks vulnerable if tailwinds fade. That leaves very little margin for disappointment. Image: Deutsche…
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the S&P 500 has typically posted modest gains in the first half of June, positive more often than not, but rarely spectacular. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator keeps pushing higher and is now flashing stretched levels, as investors crowd further into higher-risk trades. Chasing upside works until positioning itself becomes…
S&P 500 and Market Breadth Streaks The S&P 500 may be printing new highs, but the rally lacks broad participation. Weak breadth like this tends to point to underlying weakness and leaves the market more…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index is at 73.39, approaching extreme greed. Sentiment is clearly bullish, though not yet stretched to the levels that usually mark major market peaks.…
S&P 500 Return During June June has a reputation for weakness in midterm years, but the last decade tells a different story: it closed higher in 9 out of 10 years, posting a median gain…