VIX Buy Signals After VIX surges, the S&P 500 rose in 85% of instances over the next few months—but not during recessions. Image: J.P. Morgan

Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows Strong inflows are continuing to bolster the technology sector, reflecting a sustained bullish sentiment among investors and supporting the sector’s resilience and growth trajectory. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic equity positioning has fallen to the 4th percentile, reflecting an extremely cautious stance—potentially signaling a contrarian buying opportunity in the market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Death Cross The Death Cross in the S&P 500 is seen as a lagging indicator and doesn’t always signal further losses. Often, it marks a reversal, with the index frequently delivering above-average returns…

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day U.S. tariff policy is causing substantial harm on both the American brand and the broader economy. Rising costs, declining foreign tourism, and boycotts of American products are set to cost…

Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration The expiration of $2.6tn in options notional may lead to increased market volatility and price movements, driven by heightened trading activity, shifts in trader sentiment, and the mechanics in option…

U.S. Stocks Relative to Bonds Over the past nine months, U.S. stocks have shown remarkable resilience compared to bonds, reflecting a persistent “risk-on” sentiment in markets despite increased volatility and macroeconomic challenges. Image: Bloomberg

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicts an annualized contraction of -2.2% for Q1 2025, while the alternative model that incorporates gold import and export data forecasts a smaller…

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In March, U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.15% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession…

Policy Uncertainty Index vs. S&P 500 Index While periods of policy uncertainty can create temporary disruptions, they are often short-lived, with spikes frequently occurring near market lows. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 and VIX Above 50 The VIX rose above 60 during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. In both cases, the stock market had already bottomed before the VIX dropped below…