S&P 500 Performance After a Positive August and YTD Between 10% and 17.5% History says this setup is bullish. Since 1945, when August closed in the green with the market up between 10% and 17.5%…
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total A handful of giants now run the S&P 500. The top 10 stocks make up 39% of the index’s…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 58, investors are leaning greedy but not euphoric. That kind of healthy risk appetite still leaves room for the market to…
U.S. Equity Market Capitalization Since ChatGPT launched, multiple expansion has contributed 25% of the surge in U.S. market cap, crushing the equity risk premium and leaving little room for error if AI demand or earnings…
S&P 500 and 10-Year Yield Correlation Daily moves in U.S. stocks and 10-year UST yields have turned sharply negative, eclipsing 2022 levels. But over the past four years, it has been the volatility of rates,…
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors are still playing defense. The AAII bull‑bear spread has been negative for three weeks in a row, widening again despite the S&P 500 near all-time highs. It’s exactly the…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little sign of the U.S. economy losing momentum, forecasting growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, slightly above consensus, as the labor market remains resilient. Image:…
PHLX Semiconductor Index Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Every year, the PHLX Semiconductor Index makes investors sit through an average 30% drawdown. But it has closed higher in 20 of the last 31 years.…
Share of Mutual Funds Outperforming Benchmarks 42% of large-cap mutual funds are beating their benchmarks, still above the long-term average of 37%. The catch? Most managers who beat the market one period can’t do it…
Investor Psychology Cycle When panic hits, markets overshoot to the downside, creating opportunities for contrarians to buy into peak fear. The mirror image? Euphoria, which usually sets up the exit. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in July to 437K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…