S&P 500 Returns During Midterm Election Years S&P 500 usually rallies after midterms, with gains building from months after the election into the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are still overweight, with positioning in the 86th percentile. Discretionary investors are much more cautious, underweight at the 24th percentile and leaving plenty of room to add risk.…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has retreated from extreme levels and now sits just below neutral. Market participants have turned more cautious. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E The equal-weight index trades at 16 times forward earnings, versus 19 times for the benchmark. It’s no bargain, but the valuation gap may give investors a more attractive entry…
CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs have little appetite for rates risk, with bond allocations in the fourth percentile. Fixed income remains out of favor. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have trimmed equity exposure to the 66th percentile, but their positioning is still elevated. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Total Factor Productivity in the U.S. AI has not yet sparked an economy-wide productivity surge in the U.S.. Adjusted for utilization, total factor productivity growth was flat in Q2. Image: BCA Research
Forecasts for S&P 500 Earnings and Returns Goldman Sachs sees the S&P 500 reaching 8,000 by year-end and 8,700 over the next 12 months. The engine will be earnings growth, not multiple expansion. Image: Goldman…
Estimated Contribution of Hyperscaler Capex to S&P 500 EPS Growth AI spending is still rising, but its boost to earnings is set to fade. Slower capex growth and higher depreciation will leave profits with less…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At 54.87, the Greed and Fear Index remains in neutral territory. Panic and euphoria are both in short supply, but a strong earnings season could give investors reason…
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 and 2027 Goldman Sachs is sticking with its S&P 500 targets of 8,000 by year-end and 8,700 over the next 12 months. It expects earnings growth, not multiple expansion,…