S&P 500 Returns in December if >5% YTD End of November in Year One of Presidential Cycle Bulls are in luck. Since 1945, whenever the S&P 500 was up more than 5% YTD by November’s…
S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg
Bitcoin Drawdown Bitcoin was down more than 30% from its October peak. For most assets that would be a crash, but for Bitcoin it’s a familiar kind of turbulence, sharp yet within its usual volatility…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q4 2025 U.S. GDP Nowcast up to 2.33% from 2.31% a week earlier, keeping the narrative of steady, moderate expansion intact. Image: Federal Reserve…
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank sees U.S. growth staying strong through 2028, with core inflation easing toward the Fed’s 2% target and job markets holding firm. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge
Composition of Fed Liabilities with Projections With QT ending, the Fed will pivot to reserve management purchases of Treasury bills in early 2026. Goldman Sachs expects bank reserves to climb past $3 trillion by late…
Share of Global Market Capitalization With 64% of global equities, the United States still sets the tempo in world finance, drawing capital and dictating market moods from New York to Tokyo. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Risk Appetite Indicator The Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite Indicator has dropped back to zero, marking a sharp reversal in market sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 83.99, the S&P 500 has slipped back into overbought territory, though momentum still leaves room for another push higher. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in December December often delivers steady gains for U.S. stocks, but the rally usually kicks into gear in the back half of the month as bulls take the reins.…
S&P 500 December Returns The S&P 500 lost ground last December, but two red Decembers in a row are rare. That track record may give bulls hope for a Santa Claus rally and a strong…