Distribution of S&P 500 Annual Returns Since 1928, the S&P 500 has finished a calendar year more than 10% lower only 12 times. Such drops are rare, but they’re part of the cost of staying in…

Consolidated Equity Positioning At the 44th percentile, consolidated equity positioning sits near neutral, leaving room for further upside if momentum strengthens. But as always, risk appetite rarely stays steady for long. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at 0.4, right in neutral territory, a level that has often preceded a push higher in the S&P 500 over the following month.…

U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History With the S&P 500 trading at 22 times forward earnings and the Nasdaq 100 at 26, U.S. stocks are no bargain. But investors seem happy to ride the…

Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks are testing the bottom of their decade-long channel versus the rest of the S&P 500, a level that…

Volatility – VIX vs. VIXEQ Single-stock volatility is rising faster than the VIX as leadership rotates from tech toward energy names and companies tied to real assets. Volatility beneath the surface says more about market…

Impact of Tariff Policies on the Effective Tariff Rate The Supreme Court’s ruling on the IEEPA tariffs barely moves the needle: the change only trims the effective tariff increase since early 2025, from just over…

S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures keeps the S&P 500 in neutral, with room for potential upside if momentum picks up. For now, that spark is still missing. Image: MarketDesk Research

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly fell in January to 389K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall…

Non-Financial Corporate Profits vs. 5-Year Average U.S. corporate profits have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, far outpacing the real economy. Past cycles warn that such imbalances eventually correct when market sentiment shifts. Image: Real Investment…

S&P 500 Yearly Returns The lesson from the “10 best days” rule is blunt: market timing rarely shows mercy. Miss those standout days in the S&P 500 each year and, instead of gains, your portfolio…