S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events Major geopolitical shocks can rattle investors, but U.S. stocks have a long track record of bouncing back, with median six‑month gains over 5% since World…
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning, at the 46th percentile, sits close to neutral, leaving room for more upside if momentum builds. But that moment hasn’t happened yet. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning At 0.4, Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator is firmly in neutral territory, a level that has often preceded a push higher in the S&P 500 over the following month.…
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Valuations are lofty at 22 times forward earnings for the S&P 500 and 26 for the Nasdaq 100, but investors keep piling in, convinced earnings momentum still has…
S&P 1500 Software & Services Median Shorts Short bets on software stocks have climbed to their highest level since the GFC, even as many firms keep turning in solid revenue growth. That crowding could spark…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.80%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
S&P 500 Dispersion While the S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, the action under the hood tells a different story: the realized volatility spread between the average S&P 500 stock and the index has…
Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events often rattle markets, but history shows U.S. stocks usually bounce back and push higher as investors look beyond the turmoil, showing that patience remains…
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Goldman Sachs is holding firm on its call for a 12% rise in the S&P 500 this year, targeting 7,600, driven by solid growth, steady earnings, and an AI-powered…
Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year.…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 March has often been kind to U.S. stocks, with data since 1964 showing the S&P 500 averages a 1.1% gain for the month. Maybe a touch…