S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years tend to shake up U.S. markets, as policy risks and political noise rise before voters hit the polls. Uncertainty is the one asset every portfolio gets stuck…
S&P 500 Around Geopolitical Events Since 1939 The market is replaying its old tune on geopolitical shocks: selling hard on headlines, buying back soon after. History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes. Market psychology never…
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index tends to move ahead of U.S. CPI inflation by about three months, making it a useful…
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance After March’s flight to safety, April has seen U.S. equity fund managers tiptoe back into risk. But sentiment remains cautious, with market appetite still muted…
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech remains underweight, and even more so in cyclicals, sitting at the 7th percentile. A hint of good news could see investors swing sharply the other…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q2 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast to 2.60% from 2.82% a week earlier, a minor cut that keeps the steady‑growth narrative intact. The outlook, for…
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns The conflict in the Middle East has added a layer of uncertainty, but U.S. stocks tend to find traction in the back half of April. That seasonal boost helps, but…
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech (Market Cap and Earnings) The tech pullback has left a bigger disconnect from earnings expectations. Once the mood shifts, risk appetite could roar back and drive stocks sharply higher. Fundamentals haven’t…
U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. dollar index slipping back below its 200-day moving average gives bears more reason to cheer, as the recent rebound loses momentum and the broader downtrend reasserts itself. Image: The Daily…
S&P 500 Forward Returns After Extreme AAII Bearish Sentiment Peaks Since 1990, when the AAII bearish sentiment exceeded 45%, as it did recently, the S&P 500 has delivered strong 12‑month gains, averaging more than 18%.…
S&P 500 Up 7 Days in a Row and Up >7% After seven straight days of gains and a jump of more than 7%, history points to more good news ahead: median six‑month gains of…