S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Even when midterms shake investor sentiment, history leans bullish, with U.S. stocks up an average of 8.8% in second presidential terms since 1950. Midterm jitters…
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech is underweight, and cyclicals are even more out of favor as growth worries linger. But positioning could flip fast on any sign of good news.…
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose surged 2.6% in February. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically,…
CTAs Exposure to the U.S. Dollar After betting against the U.S. dollar, Commodity Trading Advisors are easing up on their shorts and edging toward neutral. Few will be surprised as the greenback finds support when…
Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies have slipped to neutral, with positioning now in the 40th percentile, as higher volatility has triggered a recent bout of de-risking. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Brent Crude Oil Price in Real Terms The longer the oil shock drags on, the greater the risk it spills into the broader economy. For now, traders are betting this surge won’t last, expecting that…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History The S&P 500 Financials sector looks relatively cheap versus other sectors, and that caution appears somewhat overdone relative to the current fundamentals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The conflict in the Middle East is set to drag U.S. growth well below trend, with the economy losing steam in the second half as fiscal tailwinds fade…
U.S. Recession Probability Recession odds in the U.S. have dropped to levels that favor continued growth rather than an imminent slump. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 23.98, the S&P 500 sits firmly in oversold territory, tempting bargain hunters as talk of a reflexive rally grows louder. It may be a window for short-term upside.…
S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years usually make U.S. stocks more volatile, with policy uncertainty running high before voters head to the polls. Investors hate uncertainty, and election years bring plenty of it.…