Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Index Annual Return Since 1951, U.S. stocks have averaged annual gains of 13.7% under a Republican president and 17% under a Democratic president when Congress was…
Forecast of Gold Prices Goldman Sachs is sticking with its $5,400 gold target for the end of 2027. Rising rates could make the climb bumpier, but the bullish outlook may put a floor under pullbacks.…
U.S.-Listed ETF Cumulative Flows by Year More than $1.5 trillion has flowed into U.S.-listed ETFs so far this year, a record for this point in the calendar. If the buying continues, inflows could reach $2.3…
S&P 500 Implied Correlation The S&P 500 is pushing higher, but not all stocks are participating equally. As correlations fade, investors are paying closer attention to fundamentals again. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns Bad moods can be good news for stocks. When consumer confidence sinks, as it is today, pessimism may already be priced in, leaving markets room to…
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank expects the U.S. economy to remain resilient through 2028, despite two expected Fed rate hikes: 25 bps in December 2026 and another in March 2027. Image: Deutsche Bank
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The message from markets is steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to roughly 2.3% real GDP…
Hyperscaler Cloud Revenue Backlogs Hyperscalers’ backlogs keep growing as cloud and AI demand accelerates. For now, the orders are there, but that’s not proof the spending will pay off. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates U.S. small caps are poised to lead Wall Street’s earnings race, with profits forecast to surge 31% in 2026 and 50% in 2027. S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 33%…
Average Annual Real Return over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE Valuation High starting CAPE valuations have often preceded disappointing returns for U.S. stocks, creating a particularly risky backdrop for investors just entering retirement.…
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative Q1 and Then a >10% Q2 If history is any guide, the rally may have more room to run. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished higher in every…