Real Price of Gold Per Ounce Gold’s nominal price has climbed past its 1980 peak, but once you factor in inflation, it’s far less frothy than it looks. The market hasn’t lost its head, at…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite is flagging 2026 as a bullish but choppy year, and for now, the market is playing along with that seasonal script. Image:…

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.1% in December. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 16%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

S&P 500 and Equity ETF Flows Equity ETFs remain money magnets, pulling in about $5.6 billion a day since the start of the year, up from $3.5 billion in 2025. Flows don’t lie: risk appetite is alive…

Equity Sector Flows Investors are rotating out of high-growth tech stocks, where outflows have accelerated on overvaluation fears, and back into defensive and “old economy” sectors. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Investors’ risk appetite shows little sign of cooling, with S&P 500 sectors still commanding valuations well past historical averages. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility When markets are calm, systematic strategies often stay heavily long equities to capture steady gains, a stance that can sting once volatility returns. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Analysts are turning more cautious on U.S. earnings as growth concerns deepen, raising the risk of near-term pressure on stock valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. M2 Money Supply With M2 up 4.27% year on year, the money supply is lagging behind economic growth, pointing to cooling inflation rather than trouble. Image: Real Investment Advice

Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Index Annual Return Since 1950, U.S. stocks have typically shone under a split Congress, posting an average annual gain of 15.1% as investors embrace the political…