Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations A high CAPE ratio can remain elevated for extended periods without triggering a market correction. However, historical data indicates that these periods of elevated valuations typically precede lower…
S&P 500 Performance in Election Years While September and October may not favor investors in election years, awareness of historical trends and potential volatility can help investors navigate this period with greater effectiveness and confidence.…
S&P 500 Fragility Following the Global Financial Crisis, high fragility events have become more common, posing risks to U.S. equity investors and undermining the stability of the financial system. Image: BofA Global Research
Corporate Clients – Buybacks (4-Week Average) Strong buyback activity by BofA’s corporate clients, which surpasses historical averages, should be welcomed by investors as it indicates confidence in the companies’ future growth prospects. Image: BofA Securities
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Historically, the inverted U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve has accurately forecasted every U.S. recession, and its current inversion is a cause for concern. Is this time an exception? Image: J.P. Morgan
Market – Net Buys by Sector Last week, the communication services sector saw the largest inflows, while the tech sector experienced the most significant outflows from BofA’s private clients. Image: BofA Securities
GDP Growth Revision The U.S. economy demonstrates resilience and promising growth outlook, in contrast to the EU and China, which face slower recoveries and economic challenges. Image: Deutsche Bank
Returns – U.S. Equities vs. Commodities While commodities can serve as a hedge in certain market conditions, U.S. equities are likely to continue outperforming them over the long term due to their lower volatility, more…
G7 Inflation Average Current projections and trends suggest a return to 5% inflation is unlikely in the near term, but long-term structural changes and unforeseen shocks could alter this outlook. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Federal Funds Rate By aligning market expectations with its policy intentions, the Fed minimizes surprises in the fed funds rate relative to market pricing at the start of the blackout period, thereby reducing the likelihood…