VIX Seasonality The market’s summer calm does not always last. Volatility often picks up from late July into the autumn, setting the stage for a bumpier ride in U.S. stocks. Image: Topdown Charts

Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The Fear & Greed Index sits at 66, firmly in greed territory. Risk appetite is healthy, not euphoric. There’s still enough fuel to push the market higher. Image:…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the S&P 500 has tended to post stronger returns in the second half of August than in the first. Could that pave the way for new all-time highs?…

U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. stocks have priced in a lot of good news, with most valuation metrics more than two standard deviations above their historical averages. But momentum could keep the…

Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E The equal-weight index trades at 17 times forward earnings, below the benchmark’s 20 times. It is hardly cheap, but the discount makes it look more appealing. Image: Goldman Sachs…

Estimated Hyperscaler Debt Issuance Credit markets are joining the AI buildout. What began as an equity story is now a credit one. Goldman Sachs strategists expect debt to fund 35% of hyperscalers’ capex by 2027.…

12-Month Forward ROE Ranges for Different MSCI Regions Higher ROE usually translates into stronger profits and a valuation premium, but U.S. equity multiples are driven just as much by growth, risk, liquidity, and investor sentiment.…

AAII Sentiment Survey New high for the S&P 500, but same old skepticism from U.S. retail investors. The AAII bull‑bear spread remains in negative territory, a contrarian setup that has often preceded more upside. Image:…

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are betting on steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to roughly 2.5% U.S. real GDP…

Share of S&P 500 by Weight Eligible to Repurchase Stock As S&P 500 companies emerge from earnings-related blackout periods, buyback activity is expected to resume by mid-August. That could offer some support to equities, but…

Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High Record highs make many investors nervous. But history shows that buying into strength has often delivered better forward…