Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns The S&P 500 is down about 3% so far this month. But if seasonality plays out, July could flip the script, ranking as the strongest month on…

Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning is in the 36th percentile, still far from crowded and leaving plenty of room to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at 2.0. Similar readings in the past have been followed by an average 0.4% decline in the S&P 500 over the next month.…

U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite shows few cracks. The Russell 2000 trades at 26 times forward earnings, versus 24 for the Nasdaq 100 and 20 for the S&P 500. Valuations are…

AAII Sentiment Survey AAII sentiment rose for a second consecutive week, lifting the bull-bear spread back above zero. U.S. retail investors are regaining confidence, with six-month outlooks brightening after a stretch of bearishness. Image: The…

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 The rotation out of mega-cap Tech is still underway. Since late October 2025, the Magnificent Seven have lagged badly, while the broader market has…

Tech: Capex and Buyback & Dividends Tech capex has now overtaken buybacks and dividends. Are shareholders trading short-term pain for long-term gain? It only works if that spending delivers real returns. Image: Societe Generale Cross…

S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus sees S&P 500 earnings rising 22% year on year in 2Q 2026, driven largely by strong tech profits. Once again, tech is carrying the…

S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Goldman Sachs still sees steady earnings growth driving the S&P 500 up 17% to 8,000 in 2026, even as periods of volatility are expected along the way. Image: Goldman…

U.S. Stock Market – Margin Debt With margin debt now above $1.4 trillion, investors are pushing deeper into risk. It does not ring the bell at the top, but when markets turn, heavy leverage tends…

S&P 500 Annual Highs Per Month Do not tell the bears that the S&P 500 has never peaked in June. Every other month has, at least once since 1950. If history is any guide, the…