U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change With the ISM Manufacturing Index still in contraction territory and strongly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth, questions arise about the resilience of corporate…
S&P 500 Performance After Fed Cuts Within 2% of All-Time Highs Bulls rejoice! Since 1980, when the S&P 500 was within 2% of its all-time high during a Fed rate cut, it has been positive…
S&P 500 2025 Year-End Target While most strategists project a bullish 2025 for the S&P 500, a notable minority advocates for caution. This divergence in opinion could comfort investors wary of market euphoria. Image: BCA…
CTAs Exposure to Equities The current CTA equity allocation, at the 64th percentile, indicates a robust positioning without reaching extreme levels. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators Market sentiment indicators are so bullish right now, even bears are updating their X profiles to “Bull Market Enthusiast.” Image: Bloomberg
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Why are bears so bearish? Maybe they’re just struggling to find U.S. stocks that don’t make them feel like they’re paying full price for a used car! It’s already Wednesday,…
Commodities (Oil, Gold, Copper) – Commodity Net Long Positioning While there are some pressures from rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar, the current landscape for gold positioning is marked by a robust…
Interest Rates – Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points today, but projections for 2025 indicate a more gradual easing strategy, aiming to boost the economy…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The Risk Appetite Indicator is currently signaling a strong preference for higher-risk investments, reflecting a positive market outlook and a risk-on environment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow forecast projects a 3.1% annualized increase in U.S. real GDP for Q4 2024, reflecting strong economic activity and continued expansion. Image: Federal Reserve…
Percentage Contribution of Returns Between Dividends, Earnings and Valuation While multiple expansion has played a crucial role in driving S&P 500 returns over the past year, future performance may hinge more on earnings growth. Image:…