PCE Inflation vs. Output Gap (Leading Indicator)
PCE Inflation vs. Output Gap (Leading Indicator) Positive output gap suggests higher core inflation next year. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
PCE Inflation vs. Output Gap (Leading Indicator) Positive output gap suggests higher core inflation next year. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
Adoption Rates of Cryptocurrencies and Internet Deutsche Bank predicts cryptocurrencies could eventually replace fiat money over the next decade. Image: Deutsche Bank Forecasts
S&P 500 Operating Earnings and NIPA Corporate Profits Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 margins to rise slightly in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fiscal Impulses in Japan and the Eurozone Japan and the eurozone are expected to benefit from significant fiscal stimulus next year. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
China GDP Growth Over the Next Five Years China real GDP growth is expected to continue to decline in the coming years. Image: Danske Research
Equity Returns After The Fed Eases During Soft Patches In recent history, two years after the Fed eases during soft patches, equities rally by an average of about 40%. Image: Barclays Research
Trade War – S&P 500 Peaks and U.S. Trade Policy What is the likelihood of a trade deal between the U.S. and China? Past market peaks have been followed by major trade escalations. Image: Deutsche…
QE in 2020 and Central Banks (the Fed, ECB and BoJ) Central banks’ QE should support financial markets next year. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Starting Valuation Predicts Future Returns Based on the Shiller CAPE ratio, the chart suggests a 10-year compound annual growth rate of only 2% to 4% for the U.S. stock market. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Recessions – NBER Since 1850, this will be the first decade without a recession in the United States. Image: National Bureau of Economic Research
Tech Fund Flows Are tech fund inflows indicating a potential bubble? Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy