U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 24 months ago. The mature phase lasted 72 months in the late 1960s and 57 months in…

U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 2 years ago. If inflation remains stable and the Fed avoids restrictive monetary policy, then the risk…

U.S. Active Fund Managers vs. Benchmarks It is hard for active fund managers to beat their benchmarks over the long term. Image: Financial Times

U.S. Recession Chances The recession probability model developed by Bloomberg economists now shows 26% chance of recession within 12 months. Image: Bloomberg

Value Stocks vs. Low Volatility Stocks Chart showing the large divergence between value stocks and low volatility stocks, like never before. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit by Month U.S. federal budget deficit surges to $134.5 billion in October. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Euro Area Cyclicals Relative to Defensives Chart suggesting that euro area cyclicals outperform defensives, when U.S. bond yields rise. Image: Credit Suisse Research

Inequality – The Global Wealth Pyramid The level of wealth inequality is high in 2019: the richest 10% of adults own 82% of global wealth, while the bottom half of adults account for less than…

S&P 500 Return A Year Later Off The Midterm Election Lows A year after the midterm lows, the S&P 500 is up 32% on average. History also shows that the S&P 500 has been higher…

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward Price-to-Earnings Is the S&P 500 valuation stretched? Valuations are currently the highest since early 2018. Image: Truist

FMS Global Yield Curve Expectations vs. U.S. Large/Small Cap Price Relative History suggests that U.S. small cap stocks outperform large cap stocks, when the yield curve steepens. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey