Volatility – Bond Proxies and Long-End Treasuries Bond proxies are less attached to Fed policy. This chart shows that the implied volatility of bond proxies is disconnected from long-end Treasuries. Image: Arbor Research & Trading…
Distribution of VIX Interesting chart showing that VIX has avoided both extremes (<12 and >25) this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Who Owns the U.S. Treasury Market? American institutions and individual investors are big holders. A large part of the treasury market is also owned by foreigners. Image: Bianco Research
Tech Bubble Chart suggesting that a second tech bubble could be about to burst. A strange feeling of déjà vu, even if the chart doesn’t take into account inflation-adjusted dollars. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Composite Recession Probability How far is the U.S. recession? Currently, the Composite Recession Probability stands at 19.6%. Historically, the probability of recession increases, when the recession rate exceeds 30%. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
The Drawdowns of 2018-2019 This nice chart shows another good way to measure drawdowns, by looking at valuations and measuring time. Image: Fidelity Investments
Current 20-Month Flat Market vs. Major S&P 500 Tops Since World War II, the U.S. stock market went nowhere three times in the last 20 months. If history repeats itself, it could make an upside…
S&P 500 and Margin Debt Margin debt has still not recovered from last December’s lows. Usually, it is mostly bullish for stocks, because investors are still fearful. Image: Merk Investments
Advanced Economies – Global GDP Forecast for 2020 Oxford Economics thinks that IMF’s new global GDP growth forecasts for 2020 are too optimistic. Image: Oxford Economics
Stock Buybacks Since 2000 Thanks to tax cuts and low interest rates, the stock market should get around $1 trillion boost via buybacks this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Delinquency Rate of Student Loans since 2003 The delinquency rate of student loans is higher than credit card delinquency, auto loans and mortgages. The main reason is that the interest rate on student loans can…