Global Financial Conditions Index and Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that easier financial conditions should feed through to growth, unless monetary policy is less effective. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI World Index vs. OECD Unemployment Rate and U.S. Consumer Confidence Chart suggesting that OECD unemployment troughs and very confident U.S. consumers do not generally bode well for global equities. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
The U.S. Dollar and Global Reserves The U.S. dollar is still seen as the world’s reserve currency and should remain the world’s currency of choice. Image: Statista
Quality of Institutions and GDP This interesting chart shows how six components of quality of governance control of corruption, (governement effectiveness, stability and absence of violence, regulatory quality, rule of law, voice and accountability) correspond…
Global Manufacturing PMI and Multi-Asset Portfolio of Cyclicals Using global manufacturing PMI to trade cyclicals in different business cycle phases. Image: J.P. Morgan
Cumulative S&P 500 Buybacks 2009-2019 Are buybacks driving the show? Thanks to tax cuts and low interest rates, corporate stock buybacks are booming. Over the past decade, S&P 500 companies bought back $5 trillion shares, while cumulative…
Volatility Across U.S. Presidential Elections Chart showing that outside of recessions, U.S. presidential elections did not contribute much to the volatility of equities, rates and forex. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Emerging Markets Credit Growth Chart showing that credit growth in most emerging markets is still growing at a sustained pace. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Calibrated Recession Index The Calibrated Recession Index suggests a low probability of U.S. recession over the next 4-6 months. U.S. recession odds for 2020 are 40%. Image: Oxford Economics
60/40 Portfolio Annual Returns A 60/40 portfolio has delivered an annualized return of 10.15% since 1976, with positive returns in 35 of 43 years. But the coming years may be more challenging, because investors may face…
Passive Equity Fund Assets vs. Active Record passive inflows suggest passive equity funds will surpass active by 2022. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch