Yield Curves Inversions: 100-Year View This chart shows that over the past 100 years, some recessions have occurred without yield curve inversion. The yield curve is one recession indicator among many others. Image: Macrobond
Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI Global Auto Index This chart shows the pretty good correlation between Global Manufacturing PMI and the MSCI Global Auto Index (YoY change). Image: J.P. Morgan
Approval Rating Ahead of November Re-Election Bid President Donald Trump’s approval rating is lower than a president should be if he wants to be reelected. Image: J.P. Morgan
Fed Balance Sheet Projection According to the NY Fed, the Fed’s balance sheet could be between $3.8 trillion and $4.7 trillion by 2025. Image: UBS
Demographics – IMF World Gross National Savings as a Percent of GDP Aging populations may well boost savings. This chart is a very good illustration. Image: Bianco Research
Russell 2000 Trailing EV/EBITDA Multiples vs. Private Equity EBITDA Multiples This chart shows that private equity multiples are currently higher than public equity multiples. Image: Strategas
China – Required Reserve Ratio vs. M1 Money Supply Growth The People’s Bank of China slashed the reserve requirement ratio for most financial institutions, but M1 money supply growth is currently near the lowest. This…
U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and Fed Insurance Cut vs. Fed Recession Cut In recent history, when the U.S. long-term business cycle peaks in the 90th percentile and the Fed cut rates, a recession occurred. Image:…
U.S. House Prices Lead Real Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Interesting chart suggesting that U.S. house prices lead real personal consumption expenditure by 6 months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Expectations vs. Current Situation and Recessions Is the next recession on its way? Gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Lohman Econometrics
S&P 500 vs. MSCI Emerging Markets Index This chart shows the strong performance of the S&P 500 against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Image: Financial Times