Growth Over U.S. Presidential Terms
Growth Over U.S. Presidential Terms Since 1960, the U.S. economy has grown faster in the fourth year of the president’s term. Image: ANZ Research
10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks
10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 Index should not peak until June 2020. In recent history, the S&P 500 Index peaks 10 months on average after the…
U.S. Rate-Cut Cycles and the U.S. Dollar
U.S. Rate-Cut Cycles and the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar has weakened only once, over the past four U.S. rate-cut cycles. Image: T. Rowe Price
Inequality – U.S. Wage Levels and Real GDP Growth
Inequality – U.S. Wage Levels and Real GDP Growth Wage levels in the United States have barely budged in decades and have clearly not kept pace with economic growth. Image: Financial Times
Inflation, Hard Data and Soft Data
Inflation, Hard Data and Soft Data Hard data are back above long-run averages. But the chart clearly shows the divergence between hard data and soft data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
S&P 500 Average Performance – Presidential Election Years and Incumbent Party Outcome
S&P 500 Average Performance – Presidential Election Years and Incumbent Party Outcome The S&P 500 performance 90 days before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. If the S&P 500…
China Credit Impulse – Reflation Cycle
China Credit Impulse – Reflation Cycle This chart shows that China credit impulse has not yet boosted relative earnings. Credit impulse is the change in new credit issued as a percentage of GDP. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. ISM Recovery and Returns: Recession vs. No Recession
U.S. ISM Recovery and Returns: Recession vs. No Recession After a recession, U.S. equities tend to perform well during ISM recoveries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Contraction and Returns: Recession vs. No Recession
U.S. ISM Contraction and Returns: Recession vs. No Recession If there is no recession, U.S. equities tend to perform well during ISM contractions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Returns Driven by Central Banks?
Returns Driven by Central Banks? This chart suggests that equity and credit markets are no longer driven by fundamentals, at the moment. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
S&P 500 Performance Leading to U.S. Election Date
S&P 500 Performance Leading to U.S. Election Date This table shows that over the last 20 election cycles in the U.S., there have been only two instances of market declines in the 12 months leading…