Central Bank Rate Cuts Lead Global Manufacturing PMI This chart suggests that the net number of central banks cutting rates leads global manufacturing PMI by 8 months. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and ISM Manufacturing Index The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Sentiment on Durable Goods Purchases Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that sentiment on durable goods purchases lead the unemployment rate by 12 months, and that the U.S. economy seems to be moving into…

Owning the Highest-Cap S&P 500 Stock This chart suggests that investing all of your money in the highest-capitalized S&P 500 stock is not a good idea and may result in underperforming the S&P 500 index.…

U.S. Employment Outlook The outlook of U.S. employment continues to improve. In Q4 2019, 22% of U.S. employers plan to add to payrolls, 5% expect a decrease and 72% expect no change. Image: ManpowerGroup

U.S. Total Home Sales This year, lower mortgage rates could boost U.S. home sales in the fourth quarter. Image: Leonard Kiefer

World – Digital Competitiveness Rankings The United States is ranked as the world’s most digitally competitive economy. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Hard Data and Soft Data U.S. hard data is improving. But the chart still shows the large divergence between U.S. hard data and soft data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8 (contraction) in September, while the Markit Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.1 (expansion). Image: Renaissance Macro

China as a Percent of Global GDP China is the world’s second largest economy, contributing 15.86% to global GDP in 2018. The United States remains the world’s largest economy, contributing 23.9% to global GDP. Image: Bloomberg,…

Fund Flows into Emerging Markets Stocks and Bonds The rotation into bonds and out of equities continues. Image: HSBC