Excess Reserves of U.S. Depository Institutions Lead the U.S. Dollar The chart suggests that excess reserves of U.S. depository institutions lead the U.S. dollar by 3 months. Image: Financial Times

No Deal Brexit According to J.P. Morgan, the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains real and stands at 35%. Image: J.P. Morgan

Probability of Global Recession The probability of a global recession among asset managers is greater than 50%. Image: Financial Times

Ifo Business Expectations Index Lead German GDP Chart suggesting that the Ifo Business Expectations Index leads German GDP by 3 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

S&P 500 and Leading Economic Index (LEI) This chart shows that stimulus has saved the U.S. stock market each time. Saved once again? Image: Stifel

Central Banks Hiking/Cutting Policy Rate A race to the bottom in global interest rates? Central Banks policy rates have started to decline again. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

S&P 500 and Pre-Election Year In pre-election years since 1950, the chart suggests that the U.S. stock market doesn’t bottom until Thanksgiving. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

Global PMI Cycles Interesting table showing global PMI cycles: if investors get the global PMI right, they do well. Image: Pervalle Global

Japan – Explaining 10-Year Yields Great chart suggesting that demographics explain Japan’s 10-year yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Cass Freight Index and U.S. GDP The Cass Freight Index suggests first signs of manufacturing activity bottoming out. Image: Macronond, SEB X-Asset Research

World Economy – Industry as Share of Total GDP Industry represented 25% of the world’s GDP in 2018, and a larger percentage of GDP in emerging countries than in developed countries. Image: howmuch.net