Blue Chip Economic Indicators Surveys and Average Probability of U.S. Recession The probability of U.S. recession increases to 39% for 2020, based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys. Image: J.P. Morgan

MSCI World Index Valuation at Cycle Peaks and Troughs On average, the MSCI World Index currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio that has marked cyclical peaks in the stock market over the past 50 years.…

Demographics – U.S. 10-Year Rate, Labor Force Growth and Nominal GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the current trend in labor force growth and nominal GDP growth points to higher rates. Image: Swedbank Research

Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession Investors move to safe assets by raising their cash holdings, like 2007/2008. This chart suggests that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is…

Recessions After U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Market Peaks Prior to NBER Recessions Analysis based on the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion, suggesting the S&P 500 peak-to-trough in percentage terms, and NBER recession…

U.S. Market Shares in China U.S. companies are clearly losing market share in key sectors in China, while President Trump wants American companies to leave China. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Commercial and Industrial Loans Interesting chart suggesting that U.S. commercial and industrial loans are expected to slow. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC

Housing Bubble Risk Munich is the city with the highest risk of a housing bubble developing, followed by Toronto, Hong Kong and Amsterdam. Image: Statista

U.S. Misery Index and Average Forward Returns The U.S. misery index (core inflation + unemployment) is approaching all-time low, because both inflation and unemployment are very low. Historically, average forward returns have been higher than…

History of Oil Prices Since 1861 This chart is a good illustration of oil price volatility over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Repo Market (Outstanding Repos) and Reserve Demand Curve The Fed will expand its balance sheet again, by purchasing Treasury bills at least until mid-2020, which should rebuild the level of reserves in the system to…