S&P 500 Quarterly Performance by Presidential Cycle Chart showing the breakdown of the S&P 500 quarterly performance by presidential cycle since 1950. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Minus ISM Manufacturing Index and Real U.S. Dollar Index This chart suggests that a strong dollar hurts U.S. manufacturers. Image: Oxford Economics

NFIB – U.S. Small Business Economics Trends U.S. small business economy and hiring plans remain strong. Image: BCA Research

Total Carbon Emissions by Country (CO2) China, the United States, and India account for almost half of the total global carbon emissions. Image: Global Carbon Project

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Manufacturing Production This chart shows the ISM survey (sentiment) versus the real world (hard data) and suggests it is not yet catastrophic. Image: Swedbank Research

S&P 500 Projection Based on Years When Index Gains at Least 15% by April The chart shows the S&P 500 projection based on years when the index gains at least 15% by April (11 times…

Global Corporate Bond Sales Companies sold a record amount of bonds in September. Yield-seeking investors were served up $434bn of new corporate bonds globally. Image: Financial Times

Earnings Estimate Progression The consensus growth estimate for Q3 earnings stands at -3.2%, but the earnings recovery seems better than 2016. The Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the U.S.…

Central Bank Rate Cuts Lead Global Manufacturing PMI This chart suggests that the net number of central banks cutting rates leads global manufacturing PMI by 8 months. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and ISM Manufacturing Index The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Sentiment on Durable Goods Purchases Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that sentiment on durable goods purchases lead the unemployment rate by 12 months, and that the U.S. economy seems to be moving into…