Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve A support for U.S. dollar bears could be a significant Fed easing, resulting in a steeper yield curve. Image: Saxo Bank

Shareholder Return vs. Free Cash Flow Thanks to low interest rates, shareholder return has exceeded free cash flow levels again. U.S. companies cannot spend more than they earn indefinitely. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Volatility – Bond Proxies and Long-End Treasuries Bond proxies are less attached to Fed policy. This chart shows that the implied volatility of bond proxies is disconnected from long-end Treasuries. Image: Arbor Research & Trading…

Distribution of VIX Interesting chart showing that VIX has avoided both extremes (<12 and >25) this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Who Owns the U.S. Treasury Market? American institutions and individual investors are big holders. A large part of the treasury market is also owned by foreigners. Image: Bianco Research

Tech Bubble Chart suggesting that a second tech bubble could be about to burst. A strange feeling of déjà vu, even if the chart doesn’t take into account inflation-adjusted dollars. Image: Financial Times

U.S. Composite Recession Probability How far is the U.S. recession? Currently, the Composite Recession Probability stands at 19.6%. Historically, the probability of recession increases, when the recession rate exceeds 30%. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

The Drawdowns of 2018-2019 This nice chart shows another good way to measure drawdowns, by looking at valuations and measuring time. Image: Fidelity Investments

Current 20-Month Flat Market vs. Major S&P 500 Tops Since World War II, the U.S. stock market went nowhere three times in the last 20 months. If history repeats itself, it could make an upside…

Advanced Economies – Global GDP Forecast for 2020 Oxford Economics thinks that IMF’s new global GDP growth forecasts for 2020 are too optimistic. Image: Oxford Economics

Stock Buybacks Since 2000 Thanks to tax cuts and low interest rates, the stock market should get around $1 trillion boost via buybacks this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research