U.S. Recession Probability Based on Credit Spreads and Treasury Spreads This chart suggests that the recession probability is low, about 10% based on credit spreads. Image: Charles Schwab

10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS  (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving…

Conference Board Leading Economic Index for U.S. (LEI) LEI suggests that the U.S. economy should continue to expand in H2 2019. Image: Ken Fisher

U.S. Total Retail Sales Volumes Chart showing that U.S. retail sales remain solid. Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics

S&P 500 Valuation This chart shows that the S&P 500 is in a trading range rather than in a bearish or bullish market trend, for more than 20 months. Image: Fidelity Investments

Equity Market Tops Interesting chart showing equity market tops. The U.S. equity market hasn’t yet reached its peak. Image: DoubleLine

Economic Data Bouncing Back Great chart showing that economic data around the world is beginning to improve. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Share of Emerging Market Central Banks Hiking/Cutting Chart showing that emerging market central banks cut rates by most in a decade. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Dow Jones Industrial Average Around Second Fed Rate Cut This chart shows that a second rate cut has been bullish. On average, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 19% over the next 12 months.…

S&P 500 – Historical September Monthly Total Returns September is usually a volatile month. But since to 1980, September has been positive 54% of the time. Image: Richardson Wealth

S&P 500 Valuation and Equity Risk Premium This chart shows that the equity risk premium (earnings yield less 10-year Treasury yield) has declined to 3.9%. Image: Fidelity Investments