S&P 500 Performance When Market Is Up 17% Through Oct. 15 When the S&P 500 is up 17% through October 15, the average gain through year-end is 3.1%, 82% of time since 1930. Image: Fundstrat…

Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve A support for U.S. dollar bears could be a significant Fed easing, resulting in a steeper yield curve. Image: Saxo Bank

Volatility – Bond Proxies and Long-End Treasuries Bond proxies are less attached to Fed policy. This chart shows that the implied volatility of bond proxies is disconnected from long-end Treasuries. Image: Arbor Research & Trading…

Distribution of VIX Interesting chart showing that VIX has avoided both extremes (<12 and >25) this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Who Owns the U.S. Treasury Market? American institutions and individual investors are big holders. A large part of the treasury market is also owned by foreigners. Image: Bianco Research

Tech Bubble Chart suggesting that a second tech bubble could be about to burst. A strange feeling of déjà vu, even if the chart doesn’t take into account inflation-adjusted dollars. Image: Financial Times

U.S. Composite Recession Probability How far is the U.S. recession? Currently, the Composite Recession Probability stands at 19.6%. Historically, the probability of recession increases, when the recession rate exceeds 30%. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

The Drawdowns of 2018-2019 This nice chart shows another good way to measure drawdowns, by looking at valuations and measuring time. Image: Fidelity Investments

Current 20-Month Flat Market vs. Major S&P 500 Tops Since World War II, the U.S. stock market went nowhere three times in the last 20 months. If history repeats itself, it could make an upside…

Advanced Economies – Global GDP Forecast for 2020 Oxford Economics thinks that IMF’s new global GDP growth forecasts for 2020 are too optimistic. Image: Oxford Economics

Stock Buybacks Since 2000 Thanks to tax cuts and low interest rates, the stock market should get around $1 trillion boost via buybacks this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research