Global Manufacturing PMI and Multi-Asset Portfolio of Cyclicals Using global manufacturing PMI to trade cyclicals in different business cycle phases. Image: J.P. Morgan

Cumulative S&P 500 Buybacks 2009-2019 Are buybacks driving the show? Thanks to tax cuts and low interest rates, corporate stock buybacks are booming. Over the past decade, S&P 500 companies bought back $5 trillion shares, while cumulative…

Volatility Across U.S. Presidential Elections Chart showing that outside of recessions, U.S. presidential elections did not contribute much to the volatility of equities, rates and forex. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Emerging Markets Credit Growth Chart showing that credit growth in most emerging markets is still growing at a sustained pace. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Calibrated Recession Index The Calibrated Recession Index suggests a low probability of U.S. recession over the next 4-6 months. U.S. recession odds for 2020 are 40%. Image: Oxford Economics

60/40 Portfolio Annual Returns A 60/40 portfolio has delivered an annualized return of 10.15% since 1976, with positive returns in 35 of 43 years. But the coming years may be more challenging, because investors may face…

Passive Equity Fund Assets vs. Active Record passive inflows suggest passive equity funds will surpass active by 2022. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Chinese Credit Growth and OECD Leading Indicator for China Chinese Credit growth rebounded in September and suggests stronger activity on the horizon. The OECD leading indicator for China picked up further at the highest level…

U.S. Dollar and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that sharp falls in the ISM Manufacturing Index are associated with U.S. dollar strength, not weakness. Image: HSBC

Fears of Global Recession The latest BofAML’s European credit investor survey shows that fears of global recession have risen to 42%. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

S&P 500 Performance When Market Is Up 17% Through Oct. 15 When the S&P 500 is up 17% through October 15, the average gain through year-end is 3.1%, 82% of time since 1930. Image: Fundstrat…