University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Current Conditions Index This index has been negative year-over-year for 8 consecutive months. This is rare outside of recession. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) and Tariffs Trade-sensitive Chinese yuan could move lower with tariffs headlines. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
Fears of a German Recession Are Rising A recession in Germany could mean economic damage across the region. Image: The Economist
Zombie Companies – U.S. Zombie Stocks by Sectors This chart shows the rise of zombie stocks in the health care and technology sectors after 2000. Image: FactorResearch
MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) Leads Global GDP This chart suggests that the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) leads Global GDP by 6 months. Image: Ken Fisher
Volatility – Percentage of Days the S&P 500 Index Rose or Fell by More than 1% This chart shows that volatility has risen last year and year-to-date, and is expected to continue through 2020. Image:…
Share Buybacks by Month Excluding 2008, August and November are generally the busiest months for buyback executions in the past decade. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Yield Curve Inversion This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to trough 19 months after the U.S. (10Y-3M) yield curve inverts. Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven…
Historical Default Rate and Recession Periods in the U.S. Default rates on high-yield corporate bonds have exceeded 10% over the past three recessions. Image: Altman-Kuehne and NBER
Presidential Election – U.S. Presidential Score Sheet for the Final Year of the First Term Historically, a U.S. president is re-elected when at least consumer confidence and the unemployment rate improve. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch