Time Lags Between Indicators and Recessions Chart showing that credit standards, earnings and the yield curve are the earliest recession indicators. Image: Oxford Economics

Global GDP and Brent Crude Oil Price High oil prices can cause recessions. Image: MarketWatch

U.S. Federal Government Debt’s Potential Impact On Growth This chart puts the U.S. federal government debt’s potential impact on growth into perspective. Image: Ned Davis Research

War Scenario for the Oil Price A war between U.S./Saudi Arabia and Iran could lead to soaring oil prices and a global recession. Image: Danske Bank Research

U.S. Long Bond This chart shows the U.S. long bond and its long-term trend line. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Consumers and Large Durables Good news for the U.S. economy! American consumers are buying large durables again, despite tariffs and trade uncertainty. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

US-China Trade Deal – BofA Survey The September edition of the BofA survey shows that 76% of clients expect a trade deal eventually, but it will take time. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey

Taiwan Exports Lead Global Manufacturing PMI Interesting chart suggesting that Taiwan exports lead global manufacturing PMI by 3 months. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Industrial Production and GDP This chart clearly shows the divergence between U.S. industrial production and GDP, since the financial crisis. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Sentiment Indicator Are investors be too bullish? Currently, the sentiment indicator is above average at 1.2 standard deviations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Recession Probability – BofA Survey The September edition of the BofA survey shows that U.S. credit investors see a 25% chance of recession over the next 12 months. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey