Falling Real Yields Allow Zombie Companies to Live On The cost of extended monetary easing: the percentage of zombie companies continues to rise as U.S. 10-year real yields fall. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Returns Under Various Presidents since the Inception of the Dow Jones For President Trump, the stock market is a scorecard. This spreadsheet shows the Dow Jones performance across different presidencies since 1896. Image: Ryan Detrick,…
S&P 500 Return Rest of Year If August Is Negative When August was negative, the S&P 500 was higher 14 of the last 14 times for the rest of the year. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL…
Core Inflation Difference (vs. U.S. core PCE) Leads EUR/USD This chart suggests that the core inflation difference (vs. U.S. core PCE) leads the EUR/USD by four months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Sovereign Ratings Map Interesting map of sovereign ratings across the world in July 2019, using Moody’s ratings. Source: Moody’s Sovereign Ratings, Aswath Damodaran
S&P 500 Average Performance -2Y/+2Y with U.S. Yield Curve Inversion History tells us that on average, the S&P 500 peaks 42 weeks after (10Y-3M) yield curve inversion. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Dividend Yield of S&P 500 Components Yields on equities seem competitive vs. U.S. Treasuries, but equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: Bespoke Investment Group
Oil Prices and OPEC Market Share OPEC’s market share is falling. Interesting chart showing oil prices and OPEC market share. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Over Next 12 Months The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months based on economic indicators stands at 45.6%. Image: J.P. Morgan
Buybacks Are the Source of the Rally in the Stock Market since 2009 But as trade tensions and economic slowdown worry U.S. firms, stock buybacks declined last quarter. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Demographics – U.S. Population Aging and Pension Demand for Bonds This chart suggests that U.S. pension demand for bonds is going to increase, as the proportion of 65+ rises. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond