War Scenario for the Oil Price

War Scenario for the Oil Price A war between U.S./Saudi Arabia and Iran could lead to soaring oil prices and a global recession. Image: Danske Bank Research

U.S. Long Bond

U.S. Long Bond This chart shows the U.S. long bond and its long-term trend line. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Consumers and Large Durables

U.S. Consumers and Large Durables Good news for the U.S. economy! American consumers are buying large durables again, despite tariffs and trade uncertainty. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

US-China Trade Deal – BofA Survey

US-China Trade Deal – BofA Survey The September edition of the BofA survey shows that 76% of clients expect a trade deal eventually, but it will take time. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey

U.S. Industrial Production and GDP

U.S. Industrial Production and GDP This chart clearly shows the divergence between U.S. industrial production and GDP, since the financial crisis. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Sentiment Indicator

Sentiment Indicator Are investors be too bullish? Currently, the sentiment indicator is above average at 1.2 standard deviations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Recession Probability – BofA Survey

U.S. Recession Probability – BofA Survey The September edition of the BofA survey shows that U.S. credit investors see a 25% chance of recession over the next 12 months. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey