Earnings, Margins and Valuation Considering earnings growth, operating margin and valuation, the S&P 500 should remain under pressure until Q3 earnings season. Image: Fidelity Investments

Effect of the Trade War on U.S. Real GDP Growth Assuming no further escalation, the trade war drag on U.S. growth is expected to peak at about -0.4% in the second half of 2019. Image:…

U.S. Yield Curve 1M to 30Y and Correlation Against Fed Funds Effective Rate According to the chart, a 75bp cut is required to normalize the term structure of interest rates. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Demographics – Forecasting U.S. GDP This chart suggests that aging population is weighing down growth. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Equity Valuations This chart shows that equity valuations are not very cheap, but not stretched either. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

G4 Central Banks Monetary Policy Rate If the trend in G4 central banks monetary policy rates continues, this chart suggests that we could see -4% in 2030. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Percentage of Euro IG Credit Trading in Various Yield Buckets and Negative Yields This chart is another example of negative-yielding debt, which poses major risks for investors. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Different Holders of DM Government Debt The chart shows the historical breakdown of different holders of DM government bonds and overall DM debt-to-GDP. Even with QE, central bank government bond holdings are below historical peaks.…

U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Jobless Claims and Recessions Before a recession, U.S. initial jobless claims bottomed. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Germany – Explaining 10-Year Bund Yields This great chart suggests that demographics explain Germany’s 10-year bund yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC