ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 1-Month Return The current S&P 500 option implied 1-month return distribution is pricing a low probability of a right tail relative to historical realised. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Implied Probability of Fed Funds Rate in December 2020 The market thinks the Fed will cut rates below 1.75% by end of 2020, as the probability of recession increases. Image: J. Safra Sarasin
Trade War – Probability of a US-China Trade Deal The market-implied probability of a US-China trade deal rises to 40%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China’s Global Acquisitions Global acquisitions by Chinese companies continue to fall, due to tight credit conditions and US-China trade tensions. Image: Financial Times
Brent 5-Year Futures Price This chart shows that long-dated oil prices stayed relatively flat after attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and Recessions This chart suggests that historically, when the U.S. long-term business cycle peaks in the 90th percentile and turns lower, it doesn’t bode well for equities around 4 months later…
The Growth of Passive Investing in the U.S. and Europe Passive ownership represents 16.2% in the U.S. compared to 7.2% in Europe. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Countries Contribution to Total Oil Production The United States accounted for 18% of global oil production in 2018. Image: Visual Capitalist
Annual Buying of Global Equities by Source The only buyer of equities remains corporates, not institutions and households. Image: Bernstein
Oil Market Disruption This chart suggests that “the oil market can cope with a larger Saudi disruption for several months.” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Various Countries’ Shares of Negative-Yielding Debt There are $13.44 trillion in negative-yielding bonds around the globe, as of 9/15/2019. Image: Charles Schwab