Historical Default Rate and Recession Periods in the U.S. Default rates on high-yield corporate bonds have exceeded 10% over the past three recessions. Image: Altman-Kuehne and NBER

Presidential Election – U.S. Presidential Score Sheet for the Final Year of the First Term Historically, a U.S. president is re-elected when at least consumer confidence and the unemployment rate improve. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Falling Real Yields Allow Zombie Companies to Live On The cost of extended monetary easing: the percentage of zombie companies continues to rise as U.S. 10-year real yields fall. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Returns Under Various Presidents since the Inception of the Dow Jones For President Trump, the stock market is a scorecard. This spreadsheet shows the Dow Jones performance across different presidencies since 1896. Image: Ryan Detrick,…

S&P 500 Return Rest of Year If August Is Negative When August was negative, the S&P 500 was higher 14 of the last 14 times for the rest of the year. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL…

Core Inflation Difference (vs. U.S. core PCE) Leads EUR/USD This chart suggests that the core inflation difference (vs. U.S. core PCE) leads the EUR/USD by four months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Sovereign Ratings Map Interesting map of sovereign ratings across the world in July 2019, using Moody’s ratings. Source: Moody’s Sovereign Ratings, Aswath Damodaran

S&P 500 Average Performance -2Y/+2Y with U.S. Yield Curve Inversion History tells us that on average, the S&P 500 peaks 42 weeks after (10Y-3M) yield curve inversion. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Dividend Yield of S&P 500 Components Yields on equities seem competitive vs. U.S. Treasuries, but equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: Bespoke Investment Group

Oil Prices and OPEC Market Share OPEC’s market share is falling. Interesting chart showing oil prices and OPEC market share. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Probability of U.S. Recession Over Next 12 Months The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months based on economic indicators stands at 45.6%. Image: J.P. Morgan