ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives This chart shows the nice correlation between ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. Dollar to China Yuan (USD/CNY) Leads Semiconductor Sales This chart suggests that the U.S. Dollar to China Yuan (USD/CNY) leads semiconductor sales by four months. Keep a close eye on USD/CNY. Image: Nordea and…
Economic Policy Uncertainty vs. Central Bank Uncertainty Economic policy uncertainty is at record highs, while Central Bank uncertainty is at record lows. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. Effective Tariff Rate The U.S. effective tariff rate is rising to the highest in 70 years. You may also like “Tariffs in United States History.” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread Probability of US recession in the next 12 months: 31.48% Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. In Q1 2019, the probability of recession was 2.90%. When this recession indicator exceeds…
S&P 500 Bull and Bear Markets In recent history, past bear markets have been shorter than bull markets. Image: Charles Schwab
Wage Growth, Monetary Policy and S&P 500 When the spread between wage growth and the Fed funds rate is wide, it is generally positive for equities. Image: Topdown Charts
Tariffs Are Raising Prices for U.S. Consumers The charts show that U.S. consumer and producer prices have risen more quickly in tariff-affected categories. This is unfortunate in this late business cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Research
Survey: What Is The Most Effective Risk-Off Hedge? In the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey, a majority of respondents preferred 10-year Treasuries as the most effective risk-off hedge. Only…
Contribution of Consumption to China’s GDP Growth This chart shows that consumption is the primary driver of China’s economic growth. You may also like “China Real GDP Growth Projection.” Image: ANZ Research