Time from 2s-10s Yield Curve Inversion until Recession Starts Recession tends to start in one to three years after the yield curve inversion. The yield curve is only one indicator among others of an economic…
Heightened Correlations to U.S. Treasury Implied Volatility (MOVE) Followed by Higher Yields This chart suggests that balanced portfolios could suffer as U.S. Treasury yields generally rise after heightened correlation. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 30-Year Treasury Bond Are U.S. equities a “buy”? The dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index is now higher than the yield from a 30-year Treasury bond. This is a…
3-Month Rate 1-Year Forward vs. 3-Month Leads U.S. GDP This chart suggests that the 1y3m-3m slope leads U.S. GDP. The 1y3m-3m slope has turned down sharply and is informative for year-head growth. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
The World’s Biggest Importers The U.S. is the largest importer in the world, followed by China and Germany. You may also like “The World’s Biggest Exporters.” Image: howmuch.net
Historical Gold Bull Market Rallies Is it the start of a new gold bull market? This chart shows gold bull markets rallies compared to the most recent. Image: VanEck
Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve: S&P 500 and U.S. Dollar History tells us that the U.S. dollar and the S&P 500 could go higher, and the yield curve could stay inverted until mid-2020. Image:…
U.S. Equity Volatility and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty The chart shows that U.S. equity volatility does not mirror global economic policy uncertainty since 2009, perhaps due to strong central bank support. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation President Trump’s decision to increase the tariff rate will lead to a greater boost to U.S. consumer prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility Across All Asset Classes This chart shows the current high correlation of implied volatility across all asset classes to U.S. Treasuries (MOVE). Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
The World’s Biggest Exporters China is the largest exporter in the world, followed by the U.S. and Germany. You may also like “The World’s Biggest Importers.” Image: howmuch.net