Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Since 1997, when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50 and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is above 52, the Fed is less aggressive, with…

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives Chart showing that U.S. cyclicals sectors relative to defensive sectors are still pricing in a strong rebound in growth (R = 0.82). Image: Deutsche Bank…

Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Leads Real U.S. GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey leads real U.S. GDP growth by 3 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Investor Sentiment​ – NAAIM Exposure Index and S&P 500 NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 56.15% (median exposure at 70%). NAAIM members’ optimism was short-lived. Image: Willie Delwiche, Baird

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment During this business cycle, America has added over 20 million jobs. Image: Leonard Kiefer

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Chart showing that the S&P 500 continues to price in a strong rebound in the ISM,  from 49 to 54 (R = 0.62). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Manufacturing’s Share of the U.S. Economy Manufacturing accounts for only 10% of U.S. GDP, but 25% to 45% of the market response. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Gold Fund Flows Investors are flooding into gold as fears of a global slowdown mount. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

U.S. Corporate Profits, Capital Expenditures, Dividends and Buybacks What would happen if U.S. companies reinvested instead of buying their own shares and paying dividends? Image: Financial Times

U.S. Economic Cycles Since 1854 This chart puts into perspective the current U.S. economic cycle. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The chart shows that the U.S. business cycle drives global asset allocation and suggests a possible U.S. recession in 2020. Image: Pictet Asset Management