U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Jobless Claims and Recessions Before a recession, U.S. initial jobless claims bottomed. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Germany – Explaining 10-Year Bund Yields This great chart suggests that demographics explain Germany’s 10-year bund yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S./German 2-Year Yield Spread vs. U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate This chart shows the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) and how a wider U.S./German 2-year yield spread corresponds to a stronger US dollar. R² = 0.62…

Democrats, Republicans, Independents – View of the Economy Americans are showing some doubts about the economy, but Democrats are more concerned than Republicans. Image: The New York Times

Economists Never See A Recession Coming This chart shows that economists are not good at predicting U.S. recessions. Image: Bianco Research

Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. EUR/USD Weaker European growth relative to the U.S. could weaken Euro/U.S. Dollar. Image: Credit Suisse

MSCI Emerging Markets and South Korea Export Volumes Less export volumes are not good news for emerging markets. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

U.S. Private Sector Yield Curve Currently, the U.S. private sector yield curve (20-year Baa bonds/bank prime rate) is the most inverted since October 2007. Image: GnS Economics

U.S. Monetary Policy and Recession This chart shows the U.S. monetary policy and two recession forecasting models over time (Fed policy rate, Atlanta Fed shadow Fed funds rate, nominal R-Star, Fed funds curve). Image: Fidelity…

Who Owns Different Countries’ Government Bonds? About 70% of the U.S. national debt is owned by domestic government, institutions investors and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research