S&P 500 Returns After Rate Cuts Near Highs Since 1980, the Fed has cut rates 17 times (S&P 500 within 2% of new highs). One year later, the S&P 500 was still higher. Image: Ryan…

Temperature Changes Around The World This climate stripes graphic shows how average temperatures have risen since 1901. Image: Ed Hawkins/Reading University

Russell 2000 Index/Russell 1000 Index Around First Fed Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession Another great chart suggesting no recession, when large caps outperform small caps, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Ned Davis Research

Large-Cap Growth/Value Equity Series Ratio Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession The chart suggests no recession, when growth stocks outperform value stocks, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Ned Davis Research

Interest Payments on the U.S. National Debt The chart shows that net interest payments on the U.S. national debt are on the rise again, despite low interest rates. Image: PEW Research Center

FedEx Stock Price Leads World Trade Volume by Three Months This chart suggests that FedEx is usually a good leading indicator of the world economy. You may also like “FedEx vs. World Trade.” Image: Deutsche…

U.S. Corporate Profit Margin and Recession The chart shows a U.S. corporate profit margin proxy. If it declines below 10% in this business cycle (red line), it could suggest a coming recession.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) Leads Global Manufacturing PMI by Three Months This chart suggests that the rally in semiconductor stocks may herald a global growth rebound. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

U.S. Dollar and Relative Growth (GDP Spread) The chart shows that the U.S. Dollar REER is about relative growth (U.S. GDP – Other Developed Market GDP YoY). You may also like “U.S. Twin Deficits (%…

U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead the U.S. Dollar Broad REER by 18 Months The chart suggests that the U.S. dollar should weaken over time. You may also like “U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP)…

U.S. Bond Market Hedged and Unhedged Investors are frantically searching for yield, knowing that 25% of all bonds in the world trade at negative interest rates. Our world is aging with high levels of debt…